Hospitalizations for Covid could rise even more in the coming days

The recent rise in Covid cases in Brazil already reflects an increase in hospitalizations for Srag (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in adults in at least four states, as shown in the latest InfoGripe bulletin from Fiocruz.

As a result, there is also growing concern about a new wave consolidating itself in the country in the coming weeks, according to experts.

The increase, which had already been anticipated by the Sheetis already verified in Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul and Amazonas.

Hospitalization data are, in general, more reliable to verify the upward or downward trend in virus transmission, explains Wallace Casaca, professor at Unesp and coordinator of the SP Covid-19 InfoTracker platform.

“We had already seen an increase in hospitalizations a little over two weeks ago, starting in the capital, then spreading to Greater SP. Today, the situation is also increasing in nearby regions, such as Sorocaba and Campinas, although at a slower pace than in the capital”, he explains.

In the state of São Paulo, according to data available until the last 13th on the government’s Seade Coronavirus platform, the number of new hospitalizations for Covid jumped from 134, on October 30th, to 333 (increase of 148.5%). In the period covering the last four weeks, the occupancy of Covid ICU beds more than doubled, from 15.3% on October 13th to 32% until last Sunday (13th).

New admissions in Greater São Paulo, on the other hand, rose from 112 on October 30th to 256 up to November 13th, a variation of more than 128%. However, the researcher points out that about 60% of hospitalizations that occur in the state are in the capital. “It is when it spreads to the interior that we have an indication of a new wave”, evaluates Casaca.

In the last week, the government of São Paulo issued an alert due to the worrying situation of the increase in hospitalizations in the state and in the capital and recommending the use of masks, among other measures.

In an interview with Sheet last Friday (11), the secretary of the health science and research portfolio, David Uip said that the alert has already been given. “The recommendation [de máscaras] has already been done and the governor is informed. People will be tested in pharmacies with symptoms and without masks “, he reinforced.

Despite the recommendation, Governor Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) said, last Sunday (14), that he will not resume the use of mandatory masks in closed places, unlike what has been proposed by the main universities in São Paulo, such as USP and Unicamp.

In addition to SP, other states are already starting to show an upward trend. In Rio de Janeiro, the number of hospitalized with Srag Covid in the last month jumped from 20, on October 2, to 82 until November 5. Also in Amazonas and Rio Grande do Sul there was an increase in cases of Srag in adults in the last epidemiological week, according to the most recent InfoGripe bulletin from Fiocruz.

“The data are still partial, but we have already observed a maintenance of the upward trend in Amazonas, mainly in Manaus, and in three other states, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul, […] where we have already observed a trend towards an increase in hospitalizations due to flu syndrome in adults and, in particular, in individuals over 60 years of age”, said Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of InfoGripe.

Despite the high number of hospitalizations, it is still difficult to measure the size of the new wave that is approaching, says Gomes. As there is a possibility of delay in the laboratory registration, it is likely that the true size of cases is even greater.

Even so, the transmission rate of the coronavirus, known as Rt, has continued to rise in the last four weeks, rising from 0.76 on October 2 to 1.27 last Sunday (13). A rate above 1 means that each person with the virus transmits it to one or more other people.

According to data from the consortium of press vehicles, the moving average of Covid cases rose 77% last Sunday compared to the previous two weeks. The moving average of deaths fell by 36% in the same period.

“Is it a new wave of deaths? We don’t know. It is certainly a new wave of cases, and this is serious because it always generates deaths. We are already seeing the health teams getting ready, but the most important thing is to mobilize the public power again, resume the use of masks and update the booster of vaccines”, evaluates Casaca.

The positivity rate of tests carried out in laboratories of the Fleury group also showed a new increase in the second week of November in relation to the previous period, from October 31 to November 6. While 3 out of 10 tests performed by day 6 were positive, that rate has risen to 39% by this Monday — a 30% increase in positivity.

According to infectious disease specialist Carolina Lázari, from Fleury Medicina e Saúde, the demand for tests has increased five times in the last week. “Undoubtedly, this increase occurred because people were more in contact with infected people and also because of the increase in symptomatic cases”, she says.

For virologist and coordinator of the Corona-Omic BR Network of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, Fernando Spilki, despite the fact that the increase in reported cases is based on a relatively small sample base — considering that, currently, there are few tests carried out in compared to the other periods of the pandemic -, it is possible to verify an increase.

“It’s difficult not to have a new wave because in previous years the profile [da pandemia] was an increase in hospitalizations followed by an increase in notifications, and this was repeated in late spring and early summer, when new strains circulating in the Northern Hemisphere entered the country,” he said.

InfoTracker’s Casaca also expects growth to be even greater in the coming days. “Unfortunately, the news today is that we have started to enter a rise with a very fast growth profile. And this, even when proportionally with a reduced number in relation to other waves, will somehow overload the hospital system”, he says. .