Some promising messages were posted in South Africa on Friday, describing a slower rate of hospital admissions with the Omicron strain, and first signs that the new wave is reaching its peak.
South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said in a press conference that just 1.7% of the new cases of COVID-19 in the second week in the fourth wave ended up in hospital, while in the corresponding week of the third wave with the delta strain the percentage was at 19%.
The Doctors of the Therapeutic Clinic of the Medical School of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Theodora Psaltopoulou, Panos Malandrakis, Giannis Danasis and Thanos Dimopoulos (Rector of EKPA) summarize the relevant data.
The new cases in the previous week of the new wave are over 20,000 per day in South Africa, compared to 4,400 in the third wave of the delta mutation. This further supports the evidence for high transmissibility of the omicron strain, something that has already begun to be observed in other countries, such as the United Kingdom.
South Africa, where the new executive was first described, is a “harbinger” of what is going to happen in the rest of the world, so developments are being closely monitored. Of course the relatively younger population of South Africa may explain a different picture of the new strain in other countries. Also 70% to 80% of citizens have a history of previous COVID-19 infection, so they have some degree of protection.
About 7,600 people are currently being treated in South African hospitals, about 40% of the peak of second- and third-wave hospitalizations. The number of additional deaths, ie the additional deaths compared to the corresponding data of previous years, is less than 2000 per week, ie one eighth of the highest in the previous wave.
More than 90% of the deaths are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. Also, the number of people who need oxygen support is significantly lower, while some are treated with milder symptoms, mainly because it is possible to be treated for follow-up, due to risk factors.
Sewage analysis in the week to December 10 showed a reduction in virus particles for two consecutive weeks in the water of the capital Pretoria.
These data further support the evidence for high transmissibility of the Omicron strain, but milder symptoms, and may also indicate a new wave of decline in South Africa, where it started.
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