By 2050, more than 153 million people could have dementia, warn researchers in a study published in the scientific journal The Lancet Public Health. In 2019, the number was 57 million.
The predicted increase is largely due to population aging and growth. But unhealthy lifestyles also contribute to the problem, experts say.
High rates of smoking, obesity and diabetes are among the risk factors that need to be treated urgently and are responsible for part of the increase in the projection made by the study.
The survey, which analyzes data from 195 countries, seeks to give governments an idea of ​​what measures may be needed.
Dementia is already the seventh leading cause of death worldwide and a leading cause of disability and dependence among the elderly. But illness is not always inevitable.
The researchers say that there have been improvements in the world, such as access to education, that have caused their projection of the number of cases of dementia to 2050 to be reduced by 6.2 million.
However, other risk factors drive the projection in the opposite direction. Scientists are less than optimistic about the effects of obesity, high blood sugar and smoking, which they say are expected to increase the number of people with dementia by more than 7 million by 2050.
“We need to focus more on preventing and controlling risk factors before they result in dementia,” said the study’s lead author, Emma Nichols, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment at the University of Washington in the US.
“Even modest advances in preventing dementia or slowing its progression would have remarkable benefits. For most, this means expanding locally appropriate, low-cost programs that support healthier diets, more exercise, quitting smoking and better access to education. “
The study predicts that cases will increase (from 2019 to 2050):
-In eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, from nearly 660,000 to over 3 million, mainly driven by population growth
-In North Africa and the Middle East, from almost 3 million to almost 14 million
-In the high-income Asia-Pacific region, from 4.8 million to 7.4 million
-In Western Europe, from almost 8 million to almost 14 million
-In Brazil, the forecast is that it will go from 1.8 million to 5.6 million.
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