(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite (-0.13% yesterday and -3.34% Wednesday) should open in the red the last session of the week, after the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report, statistical highlight this Friday. Let us first take a look at the puzzling content of this report on American employment. The private sector (excluding agriculture) created in December a little less than 200,000 jobs, far, very far from expectations. On the other hand, the unemployment rate for its part continues to decline, falling below the 4% mark of the working population.
On private employment, the NFP highlights the continuing upward trend in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, construction, transport and warehouses. logistics.
The question now is how the market will interpret it in terms of tensions on the job market. Tensions that were on the agenda of the Minutes published earlier in the week, precisely. If we refer to the Treasuries at 10 years old, who have just crossed 1.75, reading the NFP is clearly likely to corroborate the tone hawkish from the Fed.
The FOMC report of December 14 and 15 revealed the offensive content of the debates between its members, and it is clear that inflation, logistical bottlenecks and tensions in the labor market were the subjects major tension. And the tense discussions around the schedule for reducing the balance sheet have caused 10-year Treasuries to heat up, a benchmark of choice, with a strong impact on growth stocks which are currently very reactive.
“The FOMC Minutes report that American central bankers are already thinking about a deflation of the Fed’s balance sheet, without this replacing the cycle of key rate hikes”, for Christophe MOREL, Chief Economist at Groupama AM.
Yesterday little deviation to report compared to their respective consensus for weekly registrations for unemployment benefits and the monthly deficit (November) of the trade balance. In contrast, the services PMI (ISM) came out at 62, far from the target (67) and from the previous month (69.1).
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:
Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not ask any questions. An oblique straight line (drawn in black) perfectly symbolizes the basic appetite of buyers, as well as their long-term mobilization.
A court terme:
However, the picture is more nuanced in the short term since the all-round bearish of November 22, after recordings of historic highs. Yesterday in solid volumes, the index came to close on the low points exactly, after continuous losses during the session, leaving a trace of a school marubozu candle. The flagship index of technology stocks in the US came to test a steeply sloping bullish slant (in black), which we are putting under close watch.
PREVISION
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite Index quotes below the resistance at 15900.00 points.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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