The rate of change of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Europe continues to decline, which probably means that the wave will peak soon. This is stated in a new post on Facebook by Elias Mosialos, professor of Health Policy at Imperial College and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).
It shows a graph showing the weekly rate of change of confirmed cases for any given date, which shows the percentage change in the number of confirmed cases in Europe over the last seven days compared to the number of the previous seven days.
According to the graph, the weekly rate of change is now at 17% and, according to Mr. Mosialos, it should fall to 0%.
“Then,” he points out, “when this rate drops below 0% and has a negative sign, then we will see how the number of confirmed cases will start to decrease. But let’s not forget that the impact on hospital admissions is 2-3 weeks late (compared to when someone gets the virus). “We have the reservation that the data for the confirmed cases are representative, we are careful, we are vaccinated if we have not been vaccinated, and we remain optimistic”.
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