A few years ago, a disease called “disease X”, with the World Health Organization to include it on its priority list, along with known diseases such as Ebola.

In fact, it is not a specific, existing disease, but a title that symbolizes potential diseases, currently unknown to the world, that may appear in the future, causing new pandemics.

No, this is not a science fiction scenario and we know that well now. As the WHO explains, “disease X represents the knowledge that a future pandemic could be caused by a currently unknown pathogen».

The coronavirus pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus – first appearing in 2019 – is one such example of X disease.

Should we be worried?

“The possibility of a future pandemic is certainly something to worry about. The question is not if there will be a new pandemic, but when it will come“, he explains to Yahoo Life Pablo Penaloza-MacMasterassistant professor of microbiology-immunology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine.

It is recalled that the last pandemic before the coronavirus was more than 100 years ago, in 1918, with the Spanish flu. Experts, however, fear that the next pandemics will not be so far away.

This is explained by 4 main reasons:

  • Population growth: A larger and denser global population gives pathogens more potential hosts and more opportunities to jump from person to person.
  • More trips: People travel farther and more easily than ever before, which makes it easier for disease to spread.
  • Global warming: Climate change is exacerbating the spread and severity of infectious diseases, and could also lead to the re-emergence of old viruses.
  • Destruction of forests and wildlife: By invading the natural environment, which is also a “home” for animals, the boundaries between humans and animals are blurred, giving viruses and other pathogens, which previously only infected animals, more opportunities to jump to human hosts.

“We have learned the hard way from COVID-19 the consequences of not being prepared“, says, for his part, the dr. Wafaa El-Sadr, professor of epidemiology at Columbia’s Mailman School of Public Health and head of the New York City Pandemic Response Institute. “I think, therefore, that we have to anticipate and prepare for a possible next pandemic».

What can we do;

More investment in science. Experts stress the need for more investment in science and research. “What enabled us to produce vaccines so quickly for SARS-CoV-2 is that there were long-term studies on vaccine development for coronaviruses. The research did not start the day SARS-CoV-2 was identified, but years before”, says El-Sadr. “We need to invest more in our arsenal against infectious diseasesPenaloza adds.

  • Enhanced virus surveillance. El-Sadr suggests putting in place systems to more effectively monitor disease, collect and share data. “We need to do more surveillance to better sequence more viruses in animal reservoirs. To “go into the field” and identify new viruses, collect the sequences and create preventive vaccines based on the knowledge we will have gathered,” recommends Penaloza.
  • More effective information and public awareness. The mixed messages and misinformation that took place, especially during the first phase of the pandemic, constituted a serious problem in the management of the health crisis. According to El-Sadr, properly informing the public is key to effectively preparing for future risks.
  • Better health systems. Another critical problem that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic was inequality in access to health care. It is clear that the most vulnerable social groups have faced greater problems in procuring tests, vaccines and treatments. “The lesson learned from COVID-19 is that we must have a better healthcare delivery system and work hard to ensure equitable and high quality services for allEl-Sadr comments on this.

For his part, Penaloza argues that, despite the high rates of hospitalizations and deaths, we were relatively lucky in the COVID-19 pandemic, as the genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 was quite similar to other known coronaviruses, resulting in immediate vaccine development should not be such a difficult task. “There was already known information that could be exploited“, says.

There’s no guarantee that X disease will be as familiar next time. “I wish I could say we are prepared, but I believe we have a ways to go”, says El-Sadr. “I think we have learned a lot from COVID-19, but unfortunately people often forget that there is a possibility that something similar could happen again in the near future. There is complacency and that is the worst thing that can happen when it comes to preparation“, ends up.