Opinion – Pedro Hallal: I was wrong, my moderate optimism could not resist the emergence of the ômicron

On July 13, 2021, I wrote the column “When does the pandemic end?” here in Folha de S.Paulo. In that text I predicted that, in Brazil, the pandemic would end at the turn of the year, within the margin of error, between November 2021 and February 2022. Therefore, the title of today’s column is “Errei”.

During my childhood, my father and mother taught me many things, and one of the most important was admitting mistakes and learning from them. There was a time when a colleague of mine from school was suspended, and I remember that his mother made a huge mess at school and managed to reverse his suspension. At the time, I thought it was great.

Once, in my adolescence, I was suspended from the club for a week, due to a mess that I and some friends made at the entrance. I got home indignant, and asked my mother to go to the club to try to reverse the suspension. My mother quietly asked me what I had done. I narrated everything. After it was over, my mother said: “You will not go to the club for two weeks: one for the suspension imposed by the club and another for the suspension imposed by me, now. May it not happen again”.

It was not repeated.

Today, people make a lot more mistakes than back then. This is because social networks generate communication that lacks “eye to eye”. And without the “eye to eye”, the chance of making a mistake is much higher. It’s very easy to curse someone on the internet. Attacking a person and hurting his reputation is almost the profession of some nowadays.

But it is very rare these days that we see people admitting their mistake.

For example, Spaniard Rafael Nadal won his 21st Grand Slam title in tennis, and was congratulated by his arch-rival “Novax Djocovid”. It was a decent move. But imagine how epic it would be if “Djocovid” went public and said:

“Congratulations Rafa. Watching the final, I noticed how an idiot I was these last few months. All I wanted was to be there, fighting point by point for this title with you or Medvedev. I got into this vaccine war without realizing the nonsense that she represents. I will have the vaccine tomorrow and wait for me at Roland Garros”.

Anyway, admitting mistakes is out of fashion.

Returning to my case, I wrote that column when cases and deaths were on a sustainable downward trend. At the same time, vaccination was advancing rapidly in the country after a slow start. The delta variant, so feared for the damage it caused in other countries, could not resist the strength of our hero Zé Gotinha.

I knew it was possible for new variants to emerge, but I thought that even if they did, they would be “knocked out” by the vaccine. In my defense, until the arrival of the omicron, the forecast was correct, and we were already talking about removing masks and even Carnival.

When the Omicron arrived, we soon noticed two very bad things:

1. It was a variant with an immense capacity for contagion;
2. It also infected the vaccinated.

On the other hand, we had some promising news:

1. It is much less aggressive than previous versions of the virus;
2. Among those vaccinated, the risk of hospitalization and death is much lower;
3. The waveform should be much shorter than that observed for the other variants.

The truth is that, two months after the appearance of the ômicron, the number of cases skyrocketed in Brazil and in the world. Unfortunately, growth is now also observed in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. Even if the wave is shorter, it will do a lot of damage.

Since effective measures to control transmission are solemnly ignored in Brazil, it remains to invest in vaccination, in all age groups.

Even because the president and the minister of health will not admit their mistakes and start to face the coronavirus seriously.