Prostate cancer cases will increase significantly in the coming years worldwide, particularly in less affluent countries, models published in the scientific journal The Lancet estimate, which explain this trend by the predictable aging of the population.

“According to our conclusions, the annual number of new cases will double from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040,” underline the authors of this study published today, which was carried out in view of the demographic changes observed currently.

This development could be explained by “increasing life expectancy and changes in age pyramids,” the authors argue.

Prostate cancer, which is the most common in men – 15% of all cancers in men – occurs in most cases over the age of 50. And its frequency increases sharply as the years go by.

However, a large number of poor or developing countries are in the process of partially closing their life expectancy gap compared to their developed counterparts, which is expected to increase the number of prostate cancers.

And “unlike other serious health problems, such as lung cancer or cardiovascular disease, we cannot avoid this increase in incidence through public health policies,” the researchers note.

Indeed, the risk factors for prostate cancer – heredity, great height… – are much less preventable than, for example, smoking for lung cancer. Only one association with overweight has been established, but it is unclear whether there is a cause-and-effect mechanism.

The authors of the study, however, believe that it is possible to limit the growth of prostate cancer through different actions.

For example, they support targeting early diagnoses in less affluent countries, noting that prostate cancers are often detected there too late for effective action.

On the other hand, they warn of the risk of “overdiagnosis and overtreatment” in developed countries.