By 2050 25.2 million people worldwide will live with Parkinson’s disease, increased by 112% compared to 2021, according to a scientific study published in The BMJ.

Researchers, led by Capital Medical University in China, used data from the worldwide study of the disease 2021 to assess Parkinson’s appearance in 195 countries and regions from 2022 to 2050 and the factors leading to cases of disease.

Worldwide, it is estimated that the number of people living with Parkinson’s disease in 2050 will reach 25.2 million for all ages and sexes together, increasing 112% compared to 2021.

As they estimate, the appearance of Parkinson’s disease at all ages will reach the 267 incidents per 100,000 In 2050 (243 for women and 295 for men), an increase of 76% compared to 2021.

Researchers predict that the population It will be the main factor (89%) behind this increase, followed by population growth (20%).

The cases are expected to increase in all areas, especially in moderately developed countries. Specifically:

  • The largest number of cases is expected to be in East Asia (10.9 million), followed by South Asia (6.8 million), while
  • Fewer cases are estimated to exist in Oceania and Australia.
  • The largest increase in cases by 2050 is expected to occur in Western sub -Saharan Africa (292%), while smaller increases (28%) are expected in Central and Eastern Europe due to negative population growth.

People over 80 are expected to have the highest Parkinson’s appearance (2,087 cases per 100,000) in 2050, while the gap between men and women is expected to expand worldwide from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050.

As a modeling study, researchers note that it has some significant restrictions, such as low availability and data quality in some areas, lack of risk factors beyond demographic data, as well as the inability to predict Parkinson’s disease prevailing in various Parkinson’s disease in various groups.

“There is an urgent need to focus on future research on the development of new drugs, gene techniques and cell replacement therapies aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving the quality of life of patients,” they conclude.

In an accompanying article, the authors welcome the study, but note that adopting more advanced techniques can allow better forecasts.