(News Bulletin 247) – A statement by the President of the ECB, by its offensive nature, will have supported the amplification of a rebound in the single currency on Monday, towards $1.0650 at midday. The European Central Bank expects to exit negative rates at the end of the third quarter, said its president, Christine Lagarde. The European institution is tightening its monetary policy in the face of the acceleration of the rise in prices in the euro zone.
Not yet enough to make the Euro more attractive than the Dollar on the foreign exchange market, but enough to provide fertile ground for a rebound, already initiated on technical bases.
In terms of statistical figures on Monday, operators noted better than expected progress in the IFO business climate index in Germany, the leading economic power in the Euro Zone. The index rose to 93 points, but remained far from the high points of the last 12 months, at 101.
The week will be dense for traders following the flagship currency pair Euro / Dollar with in particular the precious PMI (Markit) activity indicators tomorrow, a speech by Ms. Lagarde on Wednesday and US (PCE) prices on Friday, the flagship metric for the Fed in its assessment of price dynamics.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0650 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The underlying trend remains bearish, but the absence of an interesting entry point makes it impossible to position oneself serenely. Below the 50-day moving average (in orange), with unchanged bearish tilt, the picture remains bleak in any case.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0454 USD and the resistance at 1.0758 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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