(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro/Dollar currency pair, one of the most reliable markers of risk appetite in the financial markets, remained under pressure from its 50-day moving average on Thursday (in orange), despite the gain of a few “pips”, while this second part of the week is clearly placed under the sign of American employment, with a burst of very valuable statistics for the Fed in its measurement of tensions on the use.
After the new job vacancies (JOLTS), above expectations yesterday, it will be the turn of the ADP survey and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits this afternoon to provide benchmarks. And especially tomorrow, a box on the calendar of forex traders is ticked in red: that of the NFP report (No Farm Payrolls), or the federal monthly report, where the dynamics of wages, in particular, will be scrutinized. The dread of the Fed being, if necessary, in the most uncomfortable situation there is, that of the price/wage loop…
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0695 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The spot has just returned below its 50-day moving average (in orange), the bottom trend line with a persistent downward bias. A daily candle close well below the lower shadow of Tuesday’s candle would further flesh out the bearish scenario. The opinion therefore remains bearish but without a clear sign at this stage of a potential increase in volatility. The stop is clearly identified, just above the weekly highs reached on Monday.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
Our entry point is at 1.0692 USD. The price target of our bearish scenario is at 1.0455 USD. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0787 USD.
The expected return of this Forex strategy is 237 pips and the risk of loss is 95 pips.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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