(News Bulletin 247) – After a timid rebound on Tuesday, in volumes even more discreet than those of Monday – Wall Street was nevertheless closed at the time – the CAC 40 nibbled, without going, 0.75% to 5,964 points, failing in his attempt to regain the symbolic threshold of 6,000 points. And the opening this Wednesday should be in negative territory, while J. Powell, President of the Fed, will have to clarify his positions, in a hearing before the Senators.
The markets remain stunned after the tightening, monetary or verbal, of the major central banks last week. “The hypothesis of witnessing a brutal tightening of American monetary policy weighed heavily on the equity markets”, summarizes BNPPAM in a market note. “At a time when they are emerging, more or less gradually, from the exceptional monetary policies put in place to fight the pandemic, central banks remain attentive to the reactions of investors. The fight against inflation has once again become the essential element of their function. of reaction, but there would be no point in provoking a new crisis.”
Yesterday in terms of statistics, very little to eat, apart from sales of existing homes in the United States for the month of May, which came out almost perfectly in line with expectations, at 5,410,000 units.
On the value side, in search of good deals on securities that have become cheaper, the operators abandoned the defensives which had held up a little better for the past fortnight (Carrefour, Sanofi lost more than 1% on Tuesday evening), and gladly returned to more exposed to the economic situation such as Worldline or STMicroelectronics which gained more than 3% or Saint-Gobain (+2.48% to 45.07 euros). Air Liquide rebounded more than 3% to 131.20 euros after signing its largest long-term renewable power purchase agreement in the world to date with Vattenfall in the Netherlands, for ongoing offshore wind capacity. of construction of approximately 115 MW. The title has nevertheless fallen by more than 11% since the beginning of the month.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices started their week with a technical rebound in discrete volumes, like the Dow Jones (+2.15% to 30,530 points), and the Nasdaq Composite (+2.51% to 11,069 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 2.45% to 3,764 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0500. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $105.00.
To follow as a priority on the statistical agenda this Wednesday, the consumer price index in Canada at 2:30 p.m.
Note for holders of positions on the DR: the monthly liquidation will take place at the end of the session on Monday, June 27.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The sell signals have multiplied since the combination of “evening star” candles (May 27, 30 and 31). The openings successively in bearish gap of the last two sessions of week 23, then of the first session of week 24, were accompanied by a continuous mobilization of the selling side during the session and closing on the low points of the session. All in sharply rising volumes. The momentum of participation will have followed that of the clearings, even as the CAC will have re-entered the lower part at a bearish slant that retains its resistance attributes. The picture is dark. The impossibility of quickly regaining the gaps mentioned, militates for a continuation of the movement. We specify at the end of last week as a reminder: “The closing of the day this Friday compared to the low point of the week will be scrutinized, because potentially rich in lessons.” It is clear that the weekly lows were hit on Friday, degrading the weekly candle for the second consecutive time. The technical rebound that began on Monday and Tuesday remains at this anecdotal stage in view of the accompanying transaction volumes.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 6600.00 points.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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