CAC 40: Hypersensitivity of the index

(News Bulletin 247) – Hypersensitive epidermal reaction on Friday to the spread of a new variant of the cononavirus, variant from southern Africa, which the WHO has just nomenclature with a new Greek letter (omicron), jumping in the alphabet nu and xi, respectively to avoid confusion with “New”, and to leave no ambiguity on the phonetic resemblance to “Xi” Jinping, the Chinese President. Taken by fear, the Parisian market lost 4.75% to 6,739 points, in exceptionally high volumes. 38 out of 40 files ended in the red.

In terms of statistics, operators learned of two additional inflationary signals in the Euro Zone, significantly higher than expected, with import prices in Germany (+ 3.8% monthly in October) and M3 money supply ( + 7.7%) on an annual basis.

On the value side, issues related to tourism, air transport, airport services and aircraft construction have by the nature of their activities suffered particularly in this context from fears of tightening health measures, like Accor (- 8.91% to 26.89 euros), Air France (-9.67% to 3.765 euros), ADP (-8.61% to 104.00 euros), Airbus (-11.49% to 99.36 euros ) or Safran (-10.26% to 101.10 euros). Exception among large caps Friday, Eurofins Scient., French giant of biological analyzes jumped 7.89% to 113.72 euros, doing well.

Remember that across the Atlantic, Wall Street remained closed Thursday (Thanksgiving). The place only reopened on Friday for a truncated session, in the absence of a very large fringe of operators. The Dow Jones lost 2.53% to 34,899 points and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.23% to 15,491 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, depreciated 2.27% to 45,694 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1270$. One barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 71,30$.

To be kept on the agenda this Monday, as a priority, the current home sales in the United States at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

We were awaiting the plot of the amplitude of a large figure of broad consolidation to come. This has been done since Friday, and this marked increase in downward volatility. Result: a huge bearish gap and a close on the low points of the session almost. In addition, the bullish gap of November 1 was fully filled during the session, showing the installation of the flagship index in a new framework.

PREVISION

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7185.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 6485.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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