(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index gained 2.28% to 11,621 points yesterday, in better one-off conditions since the publication of the Minutes on Wednesday. Minutes of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting which left the door open to a 50 bp hike in Fed Funds, although a further hike of 75 basis points at the end of July remains possible. The signals of tensions on the labor market, in particular, will be scrutinized at 2:30 p.m.
The good arrangements mentioned should not overshadow the predominantly bright red color of the backdrop, on an index that has fallen by more than 25% since the start of the year. “It is extremely rare that no asset is spared”, note the strategists of Optigestion. “In general, the fall in equities is accompanied, at a minimum, by a good performance in sovereign bonds. rates in turmoil.”
To follow therefore the federal monthly report (NFP for No Farm Payrolls) for the month of June in the United States. The opportunity for the Fed to gauge the tensions on the job market and to “probabilize” more finely the scenarios of entry into a price/wage spiral. The unemployment rate is expected to be stable at 3.6% of the active population, wage increases at +0.3%, as in May, and job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture) at 260,000.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flagship index of technology stocks of the American dimension is still in a downward phase, tracing a chartist pattern with an oblique neckline, within a corridor with a bearish bias. The pattern remains heavily bearish within the channel. The next highly psychological threshold is at 10,000 points. Neutral opinion immediately, in the very short term. The technical board backdrop remains bright red.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11460.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10560.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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