(News Bulletin 247) – In a market that is hesitant to say the least in the very short term, in the absence of major statistical indicators this Friday, the CAC 40 (+0.45% to 6,557 points on Thursday), should continue its oscillations around an important technical and chart threshold at 6,550 points. The issue of inflation and US monetary policy remains at the heart of concerns. The Minutes digested, the operators are already turning to the Jackson Hole symposium, the great annual mass of the great fundraisers of the planet. J. Powell will hold a speech next Friday with new clues to anticipate the magnitude of the rise in Fed Funds for the September due date: +50 or 75 bps?
In terms of statistics, operators have made up with the confirmation of the inflation record in the Euro Zone for the month of July, at +8.9% at an annual rate, on the widest basket of products. Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, price growth was confirmed at +4.0%. Across the Atlantic, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, and the manufacturing index Philly Fed punctuated the session. These two indicators came out above expectations.
On the stock side, the slight upturn in market confidence has enabled certain cyclical stocks that were battered on Wednesday to regain momentum. This is the case for automotive suppliers: Faurecia gained 4%, Valeo took 2.2% and Plastic Omnium gained 3%. The oil services and oil groups CGG, Vallourec and TotalEnergies also stood out, gaining 5%, 3.1% and 2.4% respectively in the wake of the recovery in oil prices.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Thursday’s session in the green, but within very narrow margins, like the Dow Jones (+0.06% to 33,999 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0.21% to 12,965 points). The S&P 500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, nibbling 0.23% to 4,283 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0080. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $90.00.
To follow as a priority on the statistical agenda this Friday, retail sales in Canada at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bullish engulfing structure of July 19, very clear, and marked in addition by an overrun of the moving average, the formation of a marubozu, was followed by a consolidation in a pennant, on the upper part of its body. Technically, the short-term bullish message was fully reinforced, with a subsequent confirmation: the upward crossing of the 20-day moving average on its 50-day counterpart, which had not happened since the 24 December 2021.
The current challenge is the durable crossing of a resistance at 6,550 points. The characteristics of the crossing, in particular in terms of volatility and volumes, will support its credibility if necessary. The notion of sectoral federation will also be important in deciding the question.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6792.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 12140.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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