(News Bulletin 247) – Forces continued to balance out in the very short term on the Euro/Dollar currency pair, around $1.0160 after Minutes which did not make it possible to conclude that there was a definite increase in the differential in the “remuneration” of the dollar in relation to the euro. The traditional minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee confirmed the institution’s resolutely “hawkish” tone. But the option of a 50bp hike (instead of the widely anticipated 75bp) for the September deadline has not, however, been formally ruled out. New elements of language making it possible to invalidate or affirm this proposition will be scrutinized during the Jacskon Hole symposium, the traditional annual high mass of the planet’s great fundraisers, which is held in an idyllic valley in Wyoming.
In terms of statistics, the retail sales figures, a dial still closely watched in trading rooms in the land of consumer queen, were published yesterday. If for the month of July, sales have in their broadest sense stagnated, they have, excluding automobiles, largely exceeded expectations at +0.4% on a monthly basis, according to the publication of the Census Bureau. To follow this afternoon for the United States, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits as well as the manufacturing index Philly Fed at 2:30 p.m.
For the time being, traders must deal with the confirmation of the inflation record in the Euro Zone for the month of July, at +8.9% at an annual rate, on the widest basket of products. Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, price growth was confirmed at +4.0%.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0170 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bearish message is immediately reinforced by the attitude of the spot in contact with the 50-day moving average (in orange), resistance since February 23. This basic trend curve is also seeing its slope increase.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
Our entry point is at 1.0170 USD. The price target of our bearish scenario is at 0.9801 USD. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0275 USD.
The expected return of this Forex strategy is 369 pips and the risk of loss is 105 pips.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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