(News Bulletin 247) – While the forex traders, tense, wait for the big central banks on both sides of the Atlantic to give the “the”, the currency pair Euro / Dollar failed to shake off its straitjacket technique around $ 1.13.
On the Fed, “the question of the number of rate hikes is at the heart of the debates. [Les opérateurs ] “now foresee three rate hikes next year, while maintaining those anticipated for 2023. The possible change in the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory has triggered a sharp increase in market volatility”, for Mabrouk Chetouane, director Research and Strategy of BFT Investment Managers. However, this number of expected increases may change rapidly.
“The ECB should, for its part, wait patiently to reduce its asset repurchases, before starting discussions on rate hikes” for Vincent Boy (IG France). Carsten Brzeski, Director of Global Macroeconomic Research for ING expects “a gradual and cautious recalibration of all emergency measures to prepare for the possibility of more permanent inflation. The ECB will therefore join the FED and also enter into a new phase: that of risk management in the current economic situation, after that of massive monetary support.For the ECB, the year 2022 should therefore be the year of reducing asset purchases, while remaining net long leads to a rate hike in the first quarter of 2023. “
The stake this week will be to refine the calendar of monetary tightening of the two big institutions on both sides of the Atlantic, to deduce as finely as possible the relative trajectory of the “remuneration” of the two flagship currencies. Verdict tomorrow for the Fed and Thursday for the ECB.
Apart from these purely monetary considerations, currency traders will continue to monitor, due to its impact on risky assets, the economic situation in China, in particular on the real estate front. Mr. Boy specifies: “The latest economic data from China showed a slowdown in the economic rebound, impacted by the health crisis, shortages, or even risks related to the real estate sector. We will also monitor industrial production and retail sales Wednesday. “
In the statistical chapter on Monday, very little to chew on. Note all the same the encouraging contraction of the Italian unemployment rate, which fell from 9.8% to 9.2% of the working population. Published at 11:00 am this morning, the monthly dynamics of industrial production in the Eurozone hardly deviated from the consensus, advancing in October by 1.2% on a monthly basis.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1300$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The seller’s current was strongly reinforced by the break of a technical zone at 1.1530, on marubozu November 10. This is a major fact, which resulted in a massive release of selling energy. The short term is aligned with the medium term, bearish, on the Euro / Dollar currency pair, but the entry point is no longer optimal, as the probabilities of the formation of a protest rebound increase at this stage. Forex traders will temporarily prefer to stay out of the spot while waiting for a suitable entry point. A break from the low points of November would give a signal.
A break that would mark the end of a straitjacket lateralization, and which can be triggered by monetary announcements this week, or at least by inflections in the elements of language used by the big cashiers.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1150 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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