(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite, which has declined by almost 30% since the start of the year, should end the year under the sign of volatility and nervousness, against a backdrop of restrictive discourse from big central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic. The hope of an easing on the Fed’s side was nevertheless maintained last week, with a significant slowdown in the rise in consumer prices, but the bottom line remains unchanged. Especially since the week was marked by comments deemed restrictive by several members of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), namely the president of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, and that of San Francisco, Mary Daly. The first notably warned, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, of the danger of prematurely stopping increases in key rates. Mary Daly, she, estimated that a landing of the key rates of the central bank between 4.75% and 5.25% seemed “reasonable”.
“The outlook for the global economy is darkening,” warn strategists at Pictet AM. “Interest rate hikes imposed by central banks to fight inflation not only risk further dampening GDP growth, but they also increase the likelihood of a global recession.”
Among the main lessons on the statistical front yesterday, apart from the real estate figures which came out perfectly in line with expectations, the Philly Fed (Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index) was particularly disappointed, sinking further into negative territory at -19 .4, completely missing the target. At the same time, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, remaining close to 220,000 new units, confirm the idea of persistent tensions on the labor market, tensions that generate inflation.
The Treasuries 10-year, 10-year federal sovereign bond yields, rose only slightly, hanging up close to 3.80%.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The structure of Tuesday’s candle, hanging, flanked by two candles with red bodies located largely below Tuesday’s low points, suggests an early loss of steam in the rebound started on November 10 on the gap. The gap (another, older, bearish one dating from September 13) has lost its power of attraction for the moment, with the 11,460 points acting as resistance.
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11250.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10000.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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