(News Bulletin 247) – While hopes of a softening of the Fed’s tone at the next FOMC deadline, in the heart of December, have been swept away, the Nasdaq Composite index, which is very sensitive to the monetary issue, has now fully retraced the gains made on November 30. Rise which had then only reinforced the definition of a range of hesitation, roughly between 11,000 and 11,500 points. In the meantime, operators have had to deal with indicators showing resilience, which sometimes turns into robustness, on the employment front (NFP) and services (ISM Services).
The flagship index of technology stocks on the American side melted yesterday by 2.00% all round, to 11,014 points. The ebb since January 1 (ytd) now stands at almost 30%.
As a reminder, the health barometer index of services across the Atlantic, within the meaning of the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) jumped from 54.4 to 56.5, beating the target by a wide margin. This robustness of this part of the American economy has come to shower the hopes of a more accommodating Fed, after the announcement on Friday of job creations which exceeded the projections of economists.
Overall, “the markets are counting on an early inflection by the Fed,” an option still deemed improbable by Vincent Manuel, Chief Investment Officer at Indosuez Wealth Management, who favors “the hypothesis of slower and less significant rate increases, without inflection before the second half even if the Fed approaches the final rate”.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On Thursday the Nasdaq Composite retraced higher the full extent of a consolidation flag between roughly 11,000 and 11,500 points, in strong volumes, with an open on session lows, and a close exactly on the high points. If this does not bode well for a final exit from the top, a little air has certainly been found. But the amplitude of a bypass flag has been clearly defined. It is within this flag that the oscillations will continue. An exit from below, not yet definitive, is possible.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11460.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10260.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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