(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index (+1.54% to 10,709 points) benefited yesterday from the publication of a consumer confidence index (Conference Board) well beyond expectations. Tomorrow, PCE consumer prices, the Fed’s flagship measure of inflation, will be the hot spot on the calendar before the Christmas break. Wall Street will be closed Monday, December 26, for the traditional boxing day.
In the meantime, it is the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits which have just been published, still as close to their chronic level of 200,000 new units, at 216,000 for the past week, campaigning for a continuation of tensions on the labor market. employment, tensions themselves generating inflation. Enough to prove the Fed right, which continues to adopt a particularly firm tone. The press conference which followed the last FOMC of the year will have illustrated this with pain for investors in growth stocks, files which the index which interests us here abounds.
“The Federal Reserve thinks that the American economy is still too resilient and that the persistent tensions on the labor market make it impossible to stabilize wages to date”, summarizes Emmanuel Auboyneau, Managing Partner Amplegest. “The 2% inflation target is still too distant and does not justify a change in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is therefore compromising investors’ hopes that the rate hike cycle will end soon. Logically, the US long rates resumed their ascent and equities fell again.”
Since the opening of the session on December 13, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side has lost more than 1,000 points.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flag (November 11 / December 14) is now broken, under volume conditions that make sense. The remainder of the November 10 gap is now fully filled, without isolation of sessions; the index has two short-term “falling points” (10,260, then the symbolic threshold of 10,000 points), before considering a technical protest reaction. Price navigation is going to be very technical until the end of the year.
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 10960.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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