(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 index lost 0.61% yesterday, to 6,510 points, further weakening a 50-day moving average (in orange) whose bullish orientation has been gradually weakening since the Thursday, December 15, technically marked by a candle in marubozu school black. It should be noted that the volumes are however, and legitimately low in this period of truce for confectioners, in the absence of a large fringe of operators.
Risk appetite is particularly weak in the final stretch of the year, following the explosion of Covid-19 cases in China, and the downward acceleration of US growth stock prices, in tech, entertainment, and semiconductors.
To report yesterday, emerging in a near macroeconomic desert, the publication of a surprise jump in the manufacturing index of the Richmond Fed, returning to positive territory (1), for the first time since April.
On the values ​​side, the rise in rates weighed on the securities of indebted companies such as Casino (-1.03% to 9.64) and Air France-KLM (-2.61% to 1.2515 euro). On the smaller-cap side, AB Science jumped more than 12% after mastinib, its molecule for treating amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, obtained orphan drug designation from the Swiss Institute for Therapeutic Products.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Wednesday’s session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-1.10% to 32,875 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-1 .35% at 10,213 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 1.20% to 3,783 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0620. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $78.20.
To be followed in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, the M3 money supply in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m. and the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The three-color index traced in one session the entire amplitude of the consolidation figure above 6,550 points, the integrity of which was threatened. The close on Thursday 15/12 was very close to the lows of the session, and the power of the volumes came to lend credence to the option of a break, at the end of this threshold. First attempt on Friday, with validation by the volumes.
If the sectoral federation is not yet there, the technical signal sent is clearly negative.
In the immediate future, the Wednesday 21/12 pullback must be invalidated or definitively confirmed to send any usable signal. It has so far been confirmed twice. The relative trajectories of two remarkable moving averages also send a warning signal.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 6550.00 points.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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