(News Bulletin 247) – First session of the year 2023 this Tuesday for the Nasdaq Composite index, which comes out of a 2023 vintage with terrible taste. The flagship index of technology stocks on the American side will have suffered the brunt of the strengthening of American monetary policy. Its very powerful coloring in growth stocks, mainly on tech, made it an ideal victim for sustained profit taking, as government bond yields warmed. In the end, the index will have fallen by 33%, i.e. it has lost a third of its value on 31/12/21….
The problem will be twofold at the start of 2023, on the one hand the gravity and the consequences of the health situation in China, and on the other hand the confirmation or not of a decline in inflation.
“While we are talking about several hundred million new cases in a few days, the impact on the Chinese economy is immediate.” notes Thomas Giudici (AURIS Gestion). “The activity indicators published for the month of December thus came out sharply down and are lower than those of April, during the strict containment of Shanghai.”
On the inflation side, the week will be particularly dense in benchmarks on employment, the degrees of tension of which are an essential component of the equation for rising prices. To be followed in particular the new job offers (JOLTS) on Wednesday, the survey by the ADP firm and the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits on Thursday, and as a highlight on Friday the NFP report on employment in the private sector (excluding agriculture).
The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 3.7% of the active population and a slowdown in the pace of wage increases in the private sector (excluding agriculture), to +0.4% monthly.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flag (November 11 / December 14) is now broken, under volume conditions that make sense. The remainder of the November 10 gap is now fully filled, without isolation of sessions; the index has two short-term “falling points” (10,260 hits on Wednesday, then the symbolic threshold of 10,000 points), before considering a technical protest reaction. The RSI oscillatory suggests a short downside margin ahead of this technical bounce. Not enough to initiate a comfortable selling position.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 10960.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10260.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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