(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite, an index rich in growth technology stocks, has benefited since Friday and the publication of the monthly federal report on employment, from the reflux of 10-year Treasuries. It must be said that investors have “chosen the glass half full”, focusing on the slowdown in the rate of increase in average hourly wages, while the unemployment rate and the strength of the dynamics of job creations augur well for lingering tensions. The opportunity will be clear, with the intervention of J Powell this afternoon, to learn more about the future attitude of the Fed in this context. The Chairman of the Fed will speak at a colloquium organized by the Bank of Sweden.
“Investors have […] chosen to see the glass half full on US employment figures. If the job market remains as solid as ever with sustained creations and even a drop in the unemployment rate, the market has preferred to focus on lower wage pressures”, commented M Giudici, head of bond management at Auris. Management.
As a reminder, the market witnessed with relief a deceleration in the rise in average hourly wages (+0.3% monthly), but the unemployment rate, expected to be stable at 3.7% of the working population, came out down sharply to 3.5%. 223,000 jobs were created in the last month of 2022, in the private sector (excluding agriculture), a figure above expectations.
Wall Street ended on a mixed note Monday evening, penalized by comments from several members of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Fed, has indicated that she expects the American central bank to push its rates beyond 5% before pausing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic made similar comments, seeing the Fed come in at a terminal rate between 5% and 5.25%, down from a current range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the immediate future, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, although in a downward trend, is evolving in a range whose limits are well defined, between 10,250 and 11,450 points. Navigations from one to the other of its terminals, for the next few weeks, are expected, before the affirmation of a directional. The high wick of the candle built on Monday January 10 attests to this.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 10960.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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