(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index remains at the heart of a side band (tidied up) precisely limited, between 10,250 and 11,500 points, in a market that continues to question the value of terminal rates and the shape of the yield curve. Fed Funds for 2023. It must be said that the signals are difficult to read, between “slow absorption of the job supply/demand imbalance does not prevent reassuring wage moderation”, in the words of Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Head of Research and of the strategy of BFT Investment Managers, and the strong words of Fed executives. Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Fed, has indicated that she expects the American central bank to push its rates beyond 5% before pausing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic made similar comments, seeing the Fed come in at a terminal rate between 5% and 5.25%, down from a current range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
The CPIs (consumer price indices), which will be the statistical highlight of the second part of the week, can they be used, in the event of deviation from the consensus, as a justice of the peace? On the widest product base, prices are expected to decelerate to +6.5% on an annual basis. Major meeting, tomorrow, therefore, at 2:30 p.m. (Paris time).
“The inflation that the Fed must fight is now mainly confined to services…but the recent publication of the ISM Services, a leading indicator, points to an upcoming slowdown in price pressure in this sector. “, for Alexandre Baradez (IG France). “Indeed, the “Prices paid” component of the indicator fell in December to its lowest level since the beginning of 2021.”
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the immediate future, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, although in a downward trend, is evolving in a tidied up whose limits are well defined, between 10,250 and 11,450 points. Navigations from one to the other of its terminals, for the next few weeks, are expected, before the affirmation of a directional. The high wick of the candle built on Monday January 10 attests to this. Resistance forces are gradually setting in below the 50-day moving average (in orange).
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 10960.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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