(News Bulletin 247) – Market psychology unchanged on the forex market, with a EURUSD spot still in a downward trend, but in a range that has resembled a technical straitjacket since the start of the month, the two components of the pair remaining under pressure for different reasons. The Euro, a benchmark risk appetite barometer, remains on its guard with the spread of the Omicron variant which has prompted some countries in the Euro Zone to take new restrictive measures. The Dollar – and not only against the Euro – is brutally slowed down by the refusal of a senator to vote on the environmental and social aspect of the Biden stimulus plan.
In terms of statistics, the program finally became denser yesterday, especially on the American side. the final GDP data for Q3 were raised to + 2.3% quarterly, against a previous estimate of + 2.1%. It is above all thanks to household spending, which has been revised sharply upwards, that wealth creation has exceeded expectations. Another important publication that has allowed Wall Street to regain altitude: the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) came out in surprise at 115.8.
“Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. “The current situation component fell slightly but remains very high, which suggests that the economy has maintained its momentum. in the last month of 2021. Expectations for short-term growth prospects, on the other hand, have improved, paving the way for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to buy homes, automobiles, Major appliances and vacation bookings over the next six months increased. “
To be kept on the agenda this Thursday, to follow as a priority an important meeting on US inflation with PCE prices (personal consumption expenditures), a flagship measure for the Fed in the construction of its monetary strategy. The figure will be released at 2:30 p.m., along with durable goods orders and household spending and income. To be followed at 4:00 p.m. new home sales and the UMich index in revised data, the household confidence index.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1325$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
For now, the Euro / Dollar currency pair is still in the path of a wedge consolidation wedge, which fits into a strongly bearish background momentum. The configuration remains heavy, but we warn against the temptation of an early return to bearish positions, the “risk” of a false exit from the top, in the very short term, being present. We are still waiting for a much better entry point.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1216 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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