(News Bulletin 247) – The combination of candles in ascending methods will not have been validated, the fifth and last candle displaying a significant high wick (Wednesday). Flat consolidation is the scenario envisaged, even as risk appetite is contracting on other risky asset classes (equities, oil), in particular due to concerns raised by the publication yesterday of a disappointing indicator on US domestic consumption. Monthly retail sales, excluding automobiles, corrected (-1.1% against -0.5% expected) in December.
“Since the beginning of the last quarter of 2022, the trend has reversed on retail sales. The indicator is below its trend showing a slowdown in consumer spending.” notes Philippe Waechter, Director of economic research at Ostrum AM. “The decline in purchasing power, the reduced dynamics of income and the rise in interest rates on bank cards penalize American households”, completes the leader in asset management.
Moreover, according to comments reported by Reuters, the central banker said that inflation in the euro zone was far too high and that the institution would maintain the course of rate hikes to bring this inflation down to 2% within a reasonable time. These remarks were perceived as restrictive by the market. Following statements by Christine Lagarde, the yield on the German 10-year bond rose, and is currently up 0.02 points to 2.046%.
On the macroeconomic side this Thursday, alert on the level of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic, which as a symbol are once again falling below the psychological bar of 200,000 units, revealing strong and persistent tensions on employment, tensions themselves inflation generators.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0810 around.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the absence of validation of a configuration in ascending method, a continuation of neutral oscillations, in thin range near the moving average to 20 days (in dark blue) is expected.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0645 USD and the resistance at 1.0855 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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