(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index will not have suffered yesterday from the publication of the “Empire State” index, the New York Fed’s manufacturing index, which fell to -32.9, the lowest since the spring 2020 confinements, will have affected the Dow Jones, which is by nature richer in industrial records. The flagship index of technology stocks on the American side will have managed to glean yesterday 0.14% to 11,095 points, bringing its lead since January 1 to +6%.
The market mood remains permeated by the idea that the efforts of the Fed in its unpopular process of monetary tightening are beginning to bear fruit. The latest CPI (consumer price index) clearly illustrated this last week. “The market remains confident that the Fed will not raise rates as much as it indicated in the December projections. Fewer rate hikes create favorable market dynamics for risk (equities, credit and duration included) against a drop in the dollar”, for Axel Botte, International Strategist at Ostrum AM. “However, it cannot be ruled out that the reopening of China will induce an early rebound in oil prices”, nuances the asset management professional. This is confirmed by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In terms of statistics this Wednesday, the focus is on PPIs (Producer Price Indices) and Retail Sales, both released one hour before the start of equity trading at 2:30 p.m. The former (excluding food and energy) came out in line with expectations, with a monthly increase of 0.5%. The seconds, excluding cars, corrected (-1.1% against -0.5% expected) in December. What to go in the direction of a controlled cooling of the economic machine…
To follow the NAHB index of American residential real estate at 4:00 p.m. and the Beige Book of the Fed at 8:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the immediate future, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, although in a downward trend, is evolving in a range whose limits are well defined, between 10,250 and 11,450 points. Navigations from one to the other of its terminals, for the next few weeks, are expected, before the affirmation of a directional. The high wick of the candle built on Monday January 10 attests to this. Resistance forces are gradually settling near the 50-day moving average (in orange), the direction of which will be closely monitored. She is currently undecided.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11250.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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