(News Bulletin 247) – Return of benchmarks to Wall Street on Tuesday, after closing yesterday due to a public holiday (Commemoration of the birth of Martin Luther King). You will also find here all the public holidays on Wall Street for the whole of 2023. The year which opens in a climate of favorable risk appetite, against a backdrop of hope for a lull in the tone of the Fed, from the end of the month and the first FOMC of the year, after the publication of a marked slowdown in inflation across the Atlantic.
“This downward trajectory of inflation invites optimism and makes the scenario of a soft recession more and more likely in the United States where the FED’s efforts to fight against the components of inflation being within its reach. combine with the efforts of the White House (significant use of strategic oil reserves, laws passed two years ago by the Biden administration to support key sectors such as infrastructure, renewable energies or the semiconductor industry, etc.)” , judge Sébastien GRASSET (Auris Gestion).
The probabilities of a 25 bp increase in Fed Funds at the end of the next Monetary Policy Committee have firmed up further.
To be followed immediately, at 2:30 p.m., the NY Fed’s manufacturing index (Empire State Index).
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the immediate future, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, although in a downward trend, is evolving in a range whose limits are well defined, between 10,250 and 11,450 points. Navigations from one to the other of its terminals, for the next few weeks, are expected, before the affirmation of a directional. The high wick of the candle built on Monday January 10 attests to this. Resistance forces are gradually settling near the 50-day moving average (in orange), the direction of which will be closely monitored. She is currently undecided.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11450.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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