EUR / USD: Beware of a false exit from the top

(News Bulletin 247) – Market psychology unchanged on the forex market, with a EURUSD spot still in a downward trend, but in a range that has resembled a technical straitjacket since the start of the month, the two components of the pair remaining under pressure for different reasons. The Euro, a benchmark risk appetite barometer, remains on its guard with the spread of the Omicron variant which has prompted some countries in the Euro Zone to take new restrictive measures. The Dollar – and not only against the Euro – is brutally slowed down by the refusal of a senator to vote on the environmental and social aspect of the Biden stimulus plan.

In the statistical chapter, many landmarks to report yesterday on the American side:

– the PCE price index (Personal consumption expenditures), a flagship measure for the Fed in the construction of its monetary strategy. Often preferred measure compared to the different CPIs (consumer price indices). In corrected data for food and energy (volatile elements), prices rose in November, at a monthly rate of 0.5%, beyond the consensus, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

– Expectations also exceeded on durable goods orders up 2.5% monthly, in particular thanks to the automotive sector.

– RAS on the side of household expenditure and income, which stands out this month perfectly in the target, just like the corrected data of the household confidence index (U-Mich)

– finally, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits remain around 200,000 new units, continuing at an inevitably moderate rate from now on, their slow decline.

No major statistics are on the agenda today.

At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1.1340$ about.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

For now, the Euro / Dollar currency pair is still in the path of a wedge consolidation wedge, which fits into a strongly bearish background momentum. The configuration remains heavy, but we warn against the temptation of an early return to bearish positions, the “risk” of a false exit from the top, in the very short term, being present. We are still waiting for a much better entry point.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST

In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1216 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART

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