(News Bulletin 247) – The opening looks almost unchanged on the Nasdaq Composite index, a broad index of American technology stocks, as the end, at 8:00 p.m. (Paris time), of the first monetary policy committee approaches. (FOMC) of the year. The press conference, which will be very well attended, is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. The index gained 1.67% to 11,584 points yesterday, continuing its nervous work near a major technical zone at 11,450 points.
An increase limited to 25bp for Fed Funds is almost certain, given the progress made in slowing the rise in prices. “It is above all Mr. Powell’s speech which will be scrutinized and which will have to make people forget the procrastination of the last two meetings”, specifies at this stage Emmanuel Auboyneau, Managing Partner of AMPLEGEST. “Mr Powell will remain focused on wage inflation and will have to give us some perspective on this structural part of inflation. He should also have an eye on economic activity which looks more resilient than expected.”
Employment continues to be a “hard point” in monetary orders, given the chronic tensions. Precisely on this point, operators will have valuable benchmarks this week (new JOLTS offers, ADP survey, weekly jobless claims and the high point on Friday, the federal report on private employment). Any sign of persistent and chronic tension in employment will be reason to anticipate continued tension on the monetary rope. And may, if necessary, postpone the pivot date estimates.
“Inflation, like wage growth, remains too high compared to the inflation target and the continuation of their slowdown is not guaranteed given that the job market remains extremely tight”, explains his side. Xavier Chapard of La Banque Postale Asset Management. “Against this backdrop, we believe the Fed will maintain a tough rhetoric that the rate hike is not over yet and that rates will stay higher for longer than the market expects.”
Index futures as we approach the start of the session point to an opening in slightly negative territory.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
A major technical and graphic fact, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American quotation is in the process of crossing (still to be formally confirmed) the upper limit of a wide range (range of expression of quotations between 10,250 and 11,450 points). The message sent is positive provided that rapid reintegration, in closing data, does not occur. This reinstatement is almost effective, as the test is still in progress. As seen above, the index continues to trace nervous oscillations near a major technical zone at 11,450 points.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11750.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
©2023 News Bulletin 247
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
