(News Bulletin 247) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open calmly on Monday morning, investors seeming to want to extend their break from last week after the sustained increase at the start of 2023.

Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – February expiry – fell by 0.5 point to 7132.5 points, announcing a very slight decline at the opening.

After signing its first negative weekly performance since early January, the Paris market will know this week if its recent underlying trend is indeed unshakable or if its rebound has gone too far.

The CAC 40 index had lost 1.4% during the past week, a poor performance which does not prevent the index from claiming even more than 10% since the start of the year.

Taken very seriously a few months ago, the threat of a winter recession now seems averted, thanks to falling energy prices and the prospect of a reopening of the Chinese economy.

If the experts do not entirely agree on the assessment of the risks of a relapse of the global economy, the worst-case scenario is no longer their preferred hypothesis.

Jan Hatzius, the star economist at Goldman Sachs, attributes only a 35% probability of a recession in the United States this year.

The latest US employment report has indeed reinforced the prospect of a ‘soft landing’ for the economy, a scenario which would be characterized by a movement of disinflation, unemployment at rock bottom and the absence of a recession.

“It looks like 2023 could be a year of sluggish growth, but no recession,” said Steven Bell, chief economist for EMEA at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

This reassuring picture nevertheless includes a gray area: if the global economy resists, this could push the major central banks to continue their monetary tightening, or even to accelerate it.

Under these conditions, investors will carefully study the statistics expected this week, which may help to learn more about a possible recovery.

The calendar includes a new estimate of GDP in the euro zone in the fourth quarter and inflation figures in the United States for the month of January.

The European Commission will also present its economic forecasts for the winter, which will update its GDP and inflation projections.

If the results season is now coming to an end, publications will continue in the United States with, among others, the quarterly publications of Coca-Cola and then Cisco.

So far, 69% of US companies have published better than expected accounts, which is below the five-year average of 77%.

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