(News Bulletin 247) – The day after the publication of the Fed Minutes without any particular flavor, the Euro continued to slide against the Dollar, below its 50-day moving average (in orange), itself under threat from its counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue).
This report of the last monetary policy meeting of the powerful monetary institution headed by J Powell is in line with expectations, namely those of a balance of power between hawkish And dovish, a confirmation of the desire to fight against chronic inflation. While being aware that in the interval, between the FOMC and the publication of the Minutes, many publications showing an overheating of the American economic machine have multiplied, in particular on employment.
Yesterday the IFO index of the business climate in Germany came out at 91.1, a very slight increase, perfectly within the target (the consensus). For the time being, traders were able to take note of the final inflation data in the Euro Zone at +8.6% at an annualized rate for the month of January, in line with expectations. Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, prices rose slightly more than expected, to +5.3%.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0600 approximately.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
After gradually weakening from February 6 to 14, the 50-day moving average (in orange) ended up giving way. This underlying trend line is now under threat from its 20-day counterpart (in dark blue). The sell signal would then gain in intensity if necessary. The crossings of these two remarkable moving averages have in fact been providing excellent positioning and tracking signals for many months. trade.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity.
Our entry point is at 1.0607 USD. The price target of our bearish scenario is at 1.0239 USD. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0751 USD.
The expected return of this Forex strategy is 368 pips and the risk of loss is 144 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 board
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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