(News Bulletin 247) – So far, the United States has managed to avoid the nightmare of entering a price/wage spiral, but it is clear that prices are not settling down, against a backdrop of persistent tensions on the employment front. After the publication of PCE prices, the Fed’s favorite measure in its assessment of price dynamics, traders will have “matter” next week with the results of the survey by private firm ADP and the NFP report (Non Farm Payrolls) on private employment in February.

Major benchmarks which will constitute a solid working basis for the Fed in the construction of its monetary policy for the months to come, and which will in any case allow in the short term to tip the balance in favor of +25 or +50 points Fed Funds hike basis for the next FOMC.

“The Federal Reserve must above all monitor wages and employment because it wants at all costs to avoid the anchoring of a price-wage loop. It therefore has work to do” for Emmanuel Auboyneau (AMPLEGEST). “We remain convinced that the rise in rates is coming to an end, but two or three additional hikes are undoubtedly necessary before a probable stabilization. The magnitude of these hikes is uncertain, between 25 and 50 basis points per rise.”

Market psychology remains cautious due to this monetary problem, and the most exposed assets are naturally growth stocks (first and foremost technological), files which the index that interests us here is full of. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 0.66% to 11,379 points on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasuries crossing above 4%.

To be followed at 2:30 p.m. weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, expected at a level still as low as below the threshold of 200,000 new units.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Without a strong reaction and confirmed by the volatility even during the session, the old range between 10,250 and 11,450 points is the preferred working base for future sessions. The RSI oscillator (relative strenght index) is in full navigation from a high limit to a low limit. Negative short-term opinion issued.

FORECAST

Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 11960.00 points.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Nasdaq Composite
Negative
Resistance(s):
–
Medium(s):
–

CHART IN DAILY DATA

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}

window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];

window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);

Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});

});