(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index (+0.73% yesterday, to 11,462 points) did more than resist keeping yields on 10-year Treasury bonds above 4%. As long as entry into a scenario of the inflationary price/wage spiral type is avoided, the market is content to hold its positions, mostly resisting the temptations to take profits. In this sense, the next figures on employment (ADP survey, and NFP report for February next Friday will be scrutinized).

Major benchmarks which will constitute a solid working basis for the Fed in the construction of its monetary policy for the months to come, and which will in any case allow in the short term to tip the balance in favor of +25 or +50 points Fed Funds hike basis for the next FOMC.

Because the state of tensions on employment is not only strong, but chronic. “Jobs are plentiful in the United States, but applicants are rare,” coolly summarizes Christian Scherrmann, American economist at DWS, who observes that “there are almost twice as many job offers as job seekers. The last time this ratio was this high was in the midst of World War II, when the industry had to reorient itself radically towards the production of weapons and many young Americans were serving overseas. “

Yesterday, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits once again came out below the threshold of 200,000 new units.

“Central banks and investors need to worry about unemployment rates, wage trends and inflation in the immediate term. It’s no wonder, then, that bankers and investors are so dependent on data and that interest rate and inflation expectations remain so volatile in the financial markets,” warns the economist.

To follow the ISM services at 4 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Without a strong reaction and confirmed by the volatility even during the session, the old range between 10,250 and 11,450 points is the preferred working base for future sessions. The RSI oscillator (relative strenght index) is in full navigation from a high limit to a low limit. Negative short-term opinion issued.

FORECAST

Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 11960.00 points.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Nasdaq Composite
Negative
Resistance(s):
–
Medium(s):
–

CHART IN DAILY DATA

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



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