(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro / Dollar is in the terminal part of the plot of a wedge, a pattern that is part of a strongly bearish underlying trend. The probabilities of an exit from the bottom, in the long term, are high, but the probabilities, in the very short term this time, of a false exit from the top are just as strong …
On the macroeconomic side this morning, the final data of the manufacturing PMI activity indicator (IHS Markit) in final data for the month of December, came out perfectly in the target, at 58.0, the surprise score of the French component compensating for the slight disappointment of the German component.
Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, comments on the latest survey figures: “The second half of 2021 has been particularly difficult for euro area manufacturers, but the latest survey results have not tarnished. festive atmosphere at the end of the year, the data for December highlighting signs of easing of the supply crisis which has hampered production chains in Europe for several months. The input delivery time index recovered for a second consecutive month to its highest level since February, signaling less deterioration in supplier performance at year-end. “
The institute also insists on “the easing of supply tensions [qui] also impacted purchasing prices, with manufacturers reporting the smallest increase in costs since April. “
To be followed for the United States, the manufacturing PMI (final data) at 3:45 p.m. and construction spending at 4:00 p.m.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1350$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
For now, the Euro / Dollar currency pair is still in the path of a wedge consolidation wedge, which fits into a strongly bearish background momentum. The configuration remains heavy, but we warn against the temptation of an early return to bearish positions, the “risk” of a false exit from the top, in the very short term, being present. We are still waiting for a much better entry point.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1216 USD and the resistance at 1.1530 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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