(News Bulletin 247) – Volatility is setting in on the Parisian market, with firm price levels, the trading rooms remaining reassured, at the end of the ball of the quarterly major groups, by the good health of the economy. While keeping a nervous eye on sovereign bond yields, particularly across the Atlantic, Treasuries 10 years having spent a good part of the past week above the 4% threshold. Also, the figures on US employment this week (ADP Wednesday, NFP Friday) will be scrutinized.

In the immediate future, the accommodating words of Raphael Bostic will have helped Wall Street. The Atlanta Fed chairman on Thursday said he favored a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) hike in rates at the next March meeting as well as a pause in rate hikes. rate in the summer. A statement that warmed the hearts of investors. The higher inflation figures in Europe or the United States published this week put pressure on the European Central Bank and the Fed to continue their rate hikes for the next few months.

As a reminder, inflation in the sense of the CPI came out at +8.5% for the month of February at an annual rate in the Euro Zone, beyond expectations. In data adjusted for volatile elements (core inflation), prices rose at an annual rate of 5.6%.

In terms of statistics, on the European side, the final services PMI data for the month of February came out with little difference compared to the first estimates, at 52.7. Remember that a score above 50 suggests an expansion of the sector in question. The American ISM Services beat expectations, at 55.1 points.

On the value side, Bonduelle’s half-year results are welcomed by the markets (+5.71%), while its profitability has clearly appreciated over the period covering July to December. Vallourec is still progressing by 1.76%, the day after an attractive publication. The seamless tube maker said on Thursday it posted positive cash flow in the fourth quarter and more than three times better than expected. Arkema gained 3.03%, supported by Goldman Sachs which raised its recommendation to buy against neutral previously. Stellantis rose for its part by 2.88%, carried by Royal Bank of Canada which rose to “outperformance” against “sector performance” on the action of the car manufacturer.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Friday’s session very largely in green territory, like the Dow Jones (-1.17% to 33,390 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (+ 1.97% at 11,689 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, rose 1.61% to 4,045 points.

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0640. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $79.00.

To be followed as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda on Monday, the Sentix index of investor confidence in the Euro Zone at 10:30 am and orders for American industry at 4:00 pm.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The bearish engulfing sequence in powerful volumes and harami in much more discreet volumes, in the upper part of the bullish momentum movement, releases a short-term bearish potential, a potential that would only gain momentum in the event of a break in the moving average at 50 days (in orange) by its sister at 20 days (in dark blue). Note the closing close to the lows of the session on Wednesday, of course, but the absence of fear at this stage. The fight against this moving average is tough, and violent oscillations chop this flattening trend line.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7422.00 points.

The News Bulletin 247 board

CAC 40
Negative
Resistance(s):
7422.00 / 7740.00
Medium(s):
7000.00 / 6760.00 / 6420.00

Hourly data chart

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime

Chart in daily data

CAC 40: Week under the sign of American employment (©ProRealTime.com)
Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}

window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];

window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);

Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});

});