by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – A rebound is expected in Europe at the open on Thursday after the spectacular plunge in the markets the day before, following a new banking crisis triggered by Credit Suisse, but the trend could remain volatile until the publication of the press release. monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Futures contracts on indices suggest an increase of 1.31% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 1.32% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 1.08% for the FTSE 100 in London and 1.66% for the EuroStoxx 50.

Tension over Wednesday’s decision by the Saudi National Bank (SNB), Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, not to provide further financial assistance to Switzerland’s second-largest bank, is expected to ebb with Credit Suisse’s announcement of a loan of up to 50 billion Swiss francs (50.6 billion euros) from the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

This crisis comes almost a week after another banking crisis triggered by regional banks in the United States with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the official closure by the authorities of Signature Bank and the announcement of the cessation of operations of Silvergate Capital.

It is in this context that the ECB’s monetary policy statement is expected at 13:15 GMT. While the Frankfurt institution committed in February to a 50 basis point increase in its rates this month, the money markets now assess the probability of an increase of this magnitude at 10%. It was still 80% on Wednesday before the rout of Credit Suisse.

“It is almost certain that the ECB will not meet its prior commitment of a 50 basis point hike due to financial stability concerns,” predicts Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). “It will certainly be difficult for any major central bank to stick to its tightening trajectory,” she adds.

For Rob Carnell, economist at ING, the market should remain volatile until the decisions of the ECB: “The risk of finding, by lifting a stone, that there is something ugly underneath, increases”, a- he said.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

Credit Suisse, which lost nearly 25% of its value on the stock market on Wednesday, is indicated up 21% for the opening Thursday.

French banks such as Crédit Agricole (-5.21%), BNP Paribas (-10.11%) and Société Générale (-12.18%), which fell sharply on Wednesday with a European banking index down 6, 92%, could also rebound on Thursday.

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in disarray on Wednesday as the turbulence recorded by Credit Suisse overshadowed the prospect of a less aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) in view of the latest economic indicators such as producer prices and retail sales in the United States.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.87%, or 280.83 points, to 31,874.57 points.

The broader S&P-500 lost 27.36 points, or 0.70%, to 3,891.93 points.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced for its part by 5.90 points (+0.05%) to 11,434.05 points.

IN ASIA

At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended with a loss of 0.8% to 27,010.61 points and the wider Topix fell 1.17% to 1,937.1 points.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell 1.12% and the CSI 300 fell 1.2%.

CHANGES

The dollar paused (-0.10%) against a basket of benchmark currencies after gaining more than 1% the day before.

The euro is trading at 1.06 dollar (+0.24%) before the decisions of the ECB after having unscrewed by nearly 1.4% on Wednesday.

Among cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 1.07% to $24,657.

RATE

Government bond yields rose as the ICE BofA Move index measuring volatility in the bond market hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis on Wednesday.

The ten-year American takes more than two points, to 3.51%, and the two-year about four points, to 4.01%, the day after a sharp drop.

The German Bund yields for these two maturities are respectively 2.28% (+17 points) and 2.68% (+30 points).

OIL

Oil prices rose a little on Thursday after falling to a 15-month low the day before in the wake of Credit Suisse’s setbacks: Brent rose 0.64% to 74.16 dollars a barrel and American light crude ( West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.52% to $67.96.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Tangi Salaün)

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