(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, managed to show resistance on Friday (+0.11% to 12,075 points), at the heart of a line range between 11 900 and 12,270 points. This technical straitjacket is restraining prices as traders get into the thick of it with the wave of quarterly tech champions and May’s FOMC, which promises to be crucial.

Only Tesla, for the moment, despite good sales in Q1, has momentarily tensed the market, confirming its path towards a more aggressive monetary policy, with mechanical consequences on its margins. The stock has lost 10% of its value since the publication of its quarterly copy. Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will publish this week.

At the same time, traders remain tormented by the Fed’s short-term strategy. Will it take a break at the end of the next FOMC next month, a way of recording the confirmation of a slowdown in inflation, or will it maintain a firm course for a few more months at the risk of weighing more on a weakened economy?

“After the sharp decline in expectations of key rate hikes by the Fed during the stressful episode in the banking sector, the market has gradually corrected its view”, for Sebastian Paris Hovitz, Director of Research at La Banque Postale Asset Management. Indeed, the systemic crisis that some feared has dissipated. In addition, inflation data did not show a rapid decline, especially in the less volatile segments. “

“Nevertheless, the market continues to expect one, or even two, key rate cuts by the end of the year. This is still not our scenario. We still believe that in order to successfully calm cyclical inflationary pressures, and Inflation to reconverge towards the 2% target, the Fed should maintain a relatively restrictive policy for some time, after the peak of the hikes is reached We maintain our assumption of a final hike of 25bp at the meeting of monetary policy on May 3.

On the statistics side on Friday, the PMI activity indicators in first estimates for the current month, came out on the rise, beyond the consensus, to 50.4 for industry and 53.7 for services. Remember that a score above 50 suggests an expansion of the activity in question.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

This breathing phase is all the more possible as the star doji drawn on Friday followed two marubozus of opposite colors, at the very heart of a thin strip of work (tidy) between 11,900 points and yearly highs around 12,270 points. Above, and subject to an increase in volumes and volatility, the upward path started on the double dip at the turn of the year is assured. Below, the filling of the bullish gap of March 29 is in the sights. A visit to the lower terminal of the tidy identified is expected. On the scale of the upcoming session, a lateralization is envisaged.

FORECAST

In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of 12270.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a breakout of 119047.00 points would revive selling pressure.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Nasdaq Composite
Neutral
Resistance(s):
–
Medium(s):
–

CHART IN DAILY DATA

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime



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