Voters in Argentina head to the polls today for midterm parliamentary elections seen as a test for the ultra-liberal president Javier Millayas they will judge whether the two years that will last the second half of his term will be able to continue the reforms in favor of the free market and the policy of harsh austerity.

The presidential faction La Libertad Avanza (“liberty advances”) hopes to increase its power in Congress, to increase market confidence in the Millay government and to secure the support of US President Donald Trump, who recently promised a large “rescue” package for Argentina’s economy but threatened to back down if his counterpart not doing well in elections.

“Don’t give up because we’re half way there”Mr. Millay said at the final campaign rally on Thursday in Rosario. “We are on the right track”he insisted.

In today’s midterm elections, half of the seats in the House (ie 127) and a third of those in the Senate (ie 24) are at stake. The Peronist opposition occupies the most seats in both houses, although without a majority. The presidential faction, comparatively new to Argentine politics, has elected just 37 deputies and 6 senators.

The White House and foreign investors say they are impressed by the decline in inflation (from 12.8% before Javier Millay took office to 2.1% last month), primary surpluses, sweeping deregulation measures. But the far-right politician’s popularity continues to fall, particularly due to resentment over deep cuts in public spending and corruption scandals, most painful for him involving his sister, who is also the head of the presidency’s services (‘persona’).

Axel Kisilov, a leading figure in the Peronist opposition, governor of Buenos Aires, denounced Thursday that the fiscal adjustment attempted by President Miley has, in his opinion, “deceit and inhumanity.” “They enjoy seeing every victim of public spending cuts”he added.

The Trump administration’s promise to allocate more than 40 billion dollars – it caused an international sensation – to support the government of President Miley’s ideological ally depends on the outcome of the vote: Washington “will not be so generous” if his small faction does not increase its power, the Republican explained.

Experts say that if he secures more than 35% of the vote, the outcome will be considered good for the president and his faction as it will allow him, through alliances, to control a third of the seats and thus prevent the opposition from overriding his vetoes on laws that the president says would threaten the fiscal balance.

The president has hinted that the election will be followed by a reshuffle of his government.

In his sights until 2027: further fiscal reforms, more flexibility in the labor market, the social security system.

President Millay very often legislates by executive order, or opportunistic alliances, but increasingly stumbles in parliament, hence his frequent insults: “rats’ nest”, “degenerates”…

Sectors of society and the economy, but even Argentina’s main institutional international lender, the IMF, are advocating measures to “support” the weakest citizens.

Regardless of today’s result, President Miley “must turn to pragmatism, restart dialogue with other factions, with the governors” of the provinces, said political scientist Lara Goiburu. If he shows skill “in negotiation”, he will be able to achieve “passage” of bills, as in the early stage of his term, he added.

Yet the “biggest fiscal adjustment in history,” as Javier Millay likes to call it, resulted in the loss of 200,000-plus jobs, anemic activity, a 1.8% recession in 2024 and struggling growth in 2025. And a two-speed society more than ever.

“He sings (ie rock songs at concerts) while people are starving”exclaimed Noemi Vergara, 59, whose husband lost his metalworking job due to the recession of 2024. Like her housekeeper job: the family that employed her can no longer afford to pay her.

The citizens may have shown “unprecedented resistance” to austerity and some opinion polls recorded a 60% popularity rate for President Miley even at the beginning of the year, but “we don’t see any oasis after crossing the desert”, is the diagnosis of the economist Guillermo Oliveto, and the mood of the Argentines seems to be changing at a rapid pace. “Argentina regaining its greatness,” according to Millay’s campaign slogan in 2023, seems a long way off, as does a return to the country’s supposed “golden age” at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries.

As public confidence wanes, so does markets’ certainty about whether President Miley can continue on the path of austerity policies: a sure sign that they see the currency, the peso, as overvalued. It is characteristic that in October, the US Treasury repeatedly had to intervene directly in the markets by buying pesos to prevent the free fall of the Argentine currency.

Argentina’s citizens, painfully experienced in economic crises, fear a devaluation or a big drop in the peso after the election. The first results are expected shortly after 21:00 (local time; tomorrow Monday after 02:00 Greek time).