(News Bulletin 247) – This article, in free access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team of News Bulletin 247. To not miss any opportunity, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.

Monday, May 1, public holiday and non-working on the Paris Stock Exchange, the operators took a break. On Friday, the CAC 40 index, like a symbol, reached in extremis to end in the green (+0.10% to 7,491 points) a session that has nevertheless largely passed in red territory, due to US inflation figures deemed high, as a Committee approaches this week monetary policy of the Fed (FOMC) under high tension. The European Central Bank (ECB) will also complete a Board of Governors, an equivalent meeting.

While US inflation slowed to 4.2% year on year in March from 5.1% in February, the underlying component (excluding energy and food) has tensed investors. “Core” inflation increased over one month, by +0.3% and slowed less than expected over one year, to 4.6% against 4.7% in March and 4.5% expected by economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. On the Old Continent, inflation also remained high within the euro zone countries. In France, for example, it rebounded to 5.9% over one year in April, after having slowed to 5.7% in March, according to an initial estimate published by INSEE.

Over the whole of April, the flagship Parisian index managed to climb into the green (+2.31%), under a flurry of results from companies that were generally well received, and despite returns occasional fears about the banking sector (UBS, Santander, American regional banks).

To be complete on the statistical front, the Chicago PMI index exceeded expectations, rising sharply to 48.6, while the consumer confidence index (U-Mich, revised data), which has been under close surveillance since the disappointment caused by the Conference Board index, came out close to expectations, at 63.5 points. So much for the statistics published at the end of last week. Yesterday, the US manufacturing ISM for the month of April came out close to target, at 47.1.

On the stock side on Friday, Rémy Cointreau plunged 11.8%, after reporting disappointing prospects for the 2023-2024 financial year which will end next March, penalized by a fall in volumes in the United States. In its wake, Pernod Ricard lost 3.5%. TF1 (-7.1%) also suffered as the group reported a sharp contraction in its advertising revenues in the first quarter and did not report any significant improvement in the beginning of April. Among the strongest increases in the SBF 120 we find Casino with an increase of 9.4%, Atos (+6.9%) followed by Solutions 30 (+6.8%) which closes the podium for the day. As a reminder on Thursday, STMicroelectronics fell by 8.72% to 38.61 euros and the Grenoble equipment manufacturer Soitec by 15.43% to 128.5 euros, in very powerful volumes. Find all the explanations here.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Monday’s session slightly in the red, like the Dow Jones (+0.14% to 34,051 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (- 0.11% at 12,212 points). The S&P500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, symbolically lost 0.04% to 4,167 points.

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0990. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $75.40.

To be followed in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, the manufacturing PMI in the Euro Zone at 10:00 a.m. and the new JOLTS job offers across the Atlantic at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

After a “crazy” week (W15), marked by the tracing of a long white weekly candle, of which a good part of the body is made up of successive historical peaks, the time has come for the consolidation of the advance, even if the underlying bullish message remains intact, as shown by the reconquest of the 50-day moving average (in orange) by its 20-day counterpart (in dark blue). Just like the pursuit gaps visible in the hourly chart. In the immediate term, a continuation of a healthy flat consolidation phase is envisaged.

An encouraging sign, the ability, while consolidating, of the index to end on the weekly highs in week 16. Just like the structure of the Friday 04/28 candle, sporting a spectacular low wick which “saves” the pace of the weekly candle.

In the immediate term, however, a short ebb towards the short moving averages will be an opportunity to test the motivation of the buying camp.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of 7585.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7234.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

The News Bulletin 247 board

CAC 40
Neutral
Resistance(s):
7585.00 / 7740.00 / 8000.00
Medium(s):
7234.00 / 7088.00 / 7015.00

Hourly data chart

Chart in daily data

CAC 40: A week under the sign of monetary meetings (© ProRealTime.com)



function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}

window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];

window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);

Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});

});