CAC 40: The short-term configuration should remain volatile

(News Bulletin 247) – Losses accumulated throughout the session Monday on the Parisian market, affected by profit taking on growth stocks, against a backdrop of warming US long rates, Treasuries at 10 years constituting a benchmark barometer. The offensive content of the last Minutes, the December FOMC report, and the tensions confirmed on the employment front on Friday, opened up the prospect of a stronger and earlier than expected tightening of monetary policy American.

“The much less accommodating tone of the Fed confirms the acceleration of the current monetary tightening. The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce its asset buybacks until March and could, as early as the same month, announce a first rate hike. The probability of seeing an increase at the March meeting is now 79.2%, according to CME’s Fed Watch. It was only 35.8% a month earlier. “notes Vincent Boy (IG France ).

In terms of statistics, good news to report on the Sentix confidence index of operators in the Euro Zone, which beat expectations by approaching 15 points. RAS concerning the unemployment rate in the Euro Zone, which continues to decline as expected, to 7.2% of the working population, the lowest since … July 2008. No sharp American figure came to animate the session, and operators are already looking towards the publication tomorrow of the various consumer price indices.

On the securities side, a certain number of emblematic growth files suffered strong releases, such as Teleperformance (-4.14% to 363.70 euros), STMicroelectronics (-4.39% to 42.43 euros), or Hermès (-5.04% to 1,374 euros). Atos (-16.82% to 32.10 euros), once again collapsed, after a new warning.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices finished far from their respective low points during the session, the Nasdaq Composite, particularly affected in week 1, even managing to finish symbolically in green territory (+ 0.05% at 14,942 points). The Dow Jones contracted 0.45% to 36,068 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.14% to 4,670 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $ 1.1340. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 78,70$.

To be continued on the agenda this Tuesday, retail sales in Italy at 10:00 a.m. and a speech by Ms. Lagarde at 11:30 a.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The underlying trend is not threatened at this stage, but it is clear that the losses on Wall Street last week had repercussions in Paris, in the form of one-off and targeted profits in Paris, profit-taking of which the scope must be considered in the light of initial progress, case by case. We still remain well above a bullish slant and the 100-day moving average (in orange), benchmarks which tend to gradually merge, and which will therefore gain in technical significance.

PREVISION

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7385.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 7000.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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