(News Bulletin 247) – This article, in free access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team of News Bulletin 247. To not miss any opportunity, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
The Fed, which yesterday completed a new Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), as expected tightened its screws by 25 basis points on its Fed Funds, without providing clear clarifications on the agenda for the next decision. Is the pivot imminent? Are the terminal rates reached? Is a long break on set planned?
“In line with the consensus, the FOMC has also adopted a more ‘dovish’ tone by removing from the press release the reference to the need to increase key rates again”, notes William Gerlach, Regional Director France and United Kingdom at iBanFirst . “In the past, this corresponded to a pause in monetary policy. On the other hand, the FOMC obviously refrained from mentioning the possibility of a rate cut (a real pivot of monetary policy). The money market believes that the A downward cycle could start next November. This is too long a horizon for monetary policy in a troubled macroeconomic context with the accumulation of banking risks and the prospect of a recession.”
In terms of statistics yesterday, the unemployment rate in the Euro Zone contracted to 6.5% of the active population. In addition, the survey by the private human resources firm ADP has revived concerns about inflation, highlighting figures illustrating recurring tensions on the employment front, with job creations in the sector in particular. private exploding expectations, flirting with 300,000. Verdict Friday with the federal report NFP (Non Farm Payrolls). The ISM Services indicator in final data for April came out on target, at a level close to 52 points. As a reminder, a score above 50 reflects an expansion dynamic in the sector under consideration.
On the values ​​side, the essential luxury sector pulled the rating up, thanks, on the tricolor flagship index, to LVMH (+ 1.21% to 879.20 euros) or Hermès (+ 2.08% to 1 994 euros). On the other side of the charts, Teleperformance (-16% since the start of the year), lost 3.35% on Wednesday, to 183.50 euros.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.80% to 33,414 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-0.46% to 12,025 dots). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 0.70% to 4,090 points.
Wall Street remains worried about the fragility of regional banks, which again unscrewed on Tuesday, investors wondering which bank will sink or be pushed into the arms of a larger establishment, after Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic. Pacwest Bancorp immediately becomes the new bogeyman. The stock sank 65% in March, before stabilizing in April. It has already lost 37% since May 1.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1,1080. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $69.00.
To be followed in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, the final data of the PMI services in Europe, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m. The main meeting of the day is the outcome of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank. The press conference is scheduled for 2:45 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The three-color flagship index ended Tuesday at the low points of the session, exactly on the upper limit of the bullish gap of April 11, suspended. Under this gap, an area close to 7,235 points is in the sights. Above, a “lateralization” below the historic highs is looming.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7585.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7234.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}
window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];
window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);
Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});
});
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
