(News Bulletin 247) – The episode of the major central banks having been rather well digested, the Paris Stock Exchange is heading for a calm start to the session on this Armistice Day Monday, following the turmoil of the week elapsed.

Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ May delivery contract on the CAC 40 index grabbed ten small points 7415 points, suggesting a small increase in activity volumes which promise to be limited, knowing that the London Stock Exchange will remain closed today. today in honor of the coronation of Charles III.

While both the ECB and the Fed ended up being a little more restrictive than expected, their statements still suggest that the monetary tightening cycle should soon be coming to an end.

At the same time, the indicators published last week pushed the scenario away from a recession, particularly in the United States where employment figures far exceeded forecasts in April.

This statistic published on Friday allowed the American markets to rebound, even if their balance sheet for the whole week turns out to be more mixed: the Dow Jones shows a weekly decline of 1.2%, while the Nasdaq nibbling 0, 1%.

In Paris, the past week ended with a decline of 0.8%.

Next Thursday, the latest US inflation statistics will be closely watched.

The consensus of economists expects a slowdown in the consumer price index (CPI) to +0.3% in its basic version (‘core’) in April, against +0.4% the previous month.

Such a deceleration would give credence to the scenario of a soft landing for growth, already reinforced by the solid employment figures released on Friday.

The other key question is whether the lull on the front of the US banking sector that seems to have taken shape in recent days will continue in the coming weeks.

‘Our base case is that the renewed banking stress will remain contained and will not turn into a systemic crisis,’ analysts at Danske Bank say in their latest market update.

Because although the CAC 40 has maintained a gain of nearly 15% since the start of the year, many strategists consider that its gains remain fragile, as illustrated by the recent episode of technical consolidation which caused it to plunge back below 7500 dots.

Analysts point out that the rise in the CAC is mainly due to the good performance of its ‘quality’ names, mainly from the luxury sector, and its defensive stocks rather than that of cyclical stocks, which are more sensitive to the economic situation.

After these exceptional performances, the investors could be tempted to give reason to the old stock market adage which advises to sell in May then to go away (‘sell in May and go away’).

The impetus could come, as often, from Wall Street, where technical analysts recommend to carefully monitor the technical threshold of 4200 points, considered particularly important since it corresponds to the upper limit of the ‘trading range’ of the S&P index. 500 in the last nine months.

‘A decisive incursion beyond 4200 points would release the bullish potential of the S&P 500, which could then quickly seek the course of 4300 points’, promises Gregory Drahuschak, at Janney Montgomery Scott.

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