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In the absence of a large fringe of operators due to a public holiday (Victoire 1945), but not unemployed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the CAC 40 succeeded, almost standing still (+0.11% ) to preserve Friday’s gains (+1.26%), built on the heels of Wall Street and the NFP (No Farm Payrolls), the federal monthly report on employment which immediately chased away the specter of a recession.
Activity should be calm again on Tuesday, before US inflation tomorrow (CPI), and in full discussion on raising the debt ceiling across the Atlantic.
In terms of statistics, the Sentix index of investor confidence in the Euro Zone contracted sharply, below -13, more than the consensus had predicted. Patrick Hussy, CEFA, Managing Director Sentix, provided the following keys to understanding: “There is no doubt that the eurozone economy has held up better in the winter months than many feared in the fall. However , the issue of energy shortages remain present. Inflation data has also remained stubbornly high and is hampering consumption. Retailers complain of major sales losses and the population is unsettled by the threat of forced investments. in their heating systems. The whole thing is generating a bad mood on the economic front. The recovery, which was built on feet of clay, is thus beginning to falter.”
On the values ​​side, Vallourec rose 457% to 10.375 euros. The world-class French group, specialist in seamless tubes for the oil and gas industry, announced Friday evening that it had obtained the green light from the Brazilian authorities for a resumption of full operation of its iron mine in Brazil. At the top of the CAC 40, Alstom appreciated by 3.3% after the announcement on Friday evening of the appointment of Bernard Delpit as executive vice-president and chief financial officer of the group from June 30, and of Helen Bradley as Director of Human Resources. Nanobiotix gained another 22% after already surging 158% on Friday. The future of French biotech looks a little brighter as a potential commercialization of its flagship product looms.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in scattered order, close to balance, like the Dow Jones (-0.17% to 33,618 points) or the Nasdaq Composite ( +0.18% to 12,256 points). The S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, remained stable (+0.05% to 4,138 points).
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0990. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $72.30.
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, the French trade balance at 8:45 a.m. and the NFIB index of small American companies at 12:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Beware of the probable commitment of the three-color flagship index in a shoulder, head and shoulders pattern above a graphic base materialized by the bullish gap of March 30, below 7,235 points. We will watch like the milk on the fire, the continuation if necessary of this route to identify work scenarios. In the immediate future, no clear directional asserts itself.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7585.00 points.
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