PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Monday at the opening, before several major macroeconomic meetings in the week, but the uncertainties linked to monetary policy and the American debt ceiling should limit the variations.

The first indications available indicate an increase of 0.34% for the Paris CAC 40, 0.24% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.14% for the FTSE in London and 0.28% for the EuroStoxx 50 .

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.04% last week as Wall Street posted another weekly loss. Concerns about Chinese growth, the rise in Federal Reserve rates, US regional banks and even the deadlock in Washington over the raising of the debt ceiling are all reasons for concern for the markets.

China’s monthly industrial production and retail sales figures, due on Tuesday, will be particularly watched as investors grow increasingly concerned about the lackluster post-COVID recovery.

The interventions of many Federal Reserve officials during the week, including its chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, are also on the program.

Recent price data has given markets confidence that the Fed will cut rates by the end of the year, but Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned on Friday that the central bank will likely still have to raise them if inflation remains high.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended slightly lower on Friday, as tech stocks fell after their recent rally, as a survey showed a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.03%, or 8.89 points, to 33,300.62 points, the S&P-500 lost 6.54 points, or 0.16%, to 4,124.08 points and the Nasdaq Composite fell 43.76 points (-0.35%) to 12,284.743 points.

The University of Michigan’s confidence index fell to its lowest level in six months, as American consumers feared that the disagreement between Republicans and Democrats over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling could trigger a recession.

The survey also showed that consumer expectations for inflation five years ahead rose to their highest level since 2011.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei (+0.68%) exceeded the 29,500 point threshold for the first time since November 2021, thanks to the decline in the yen and the publication of solid corporate results.

Cosmetics maker Shiseido, which beat the consensus by posting a 97% jump in net profit over January-March, climbed 4.83% and brewer Asahi gained 3.38% after quadrupling its net profit on the period.

In China, on the other hand, the trend is more mixed: the CSI 300 index fell by 0.11% but the Shanghai SSE Composite advanced by 0.52%.

CHANGES

The dollar was virtually unchanged against a basket of benchmark currencies (-0.07%), not far from the one-month high hit earlier. The euro rose 0.15% to $1.0864.

The Turkish lira fell to its lowest level in two months as a second round of the presidential election looms in Turkey, neither of the two main candidates, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his rival Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, having garnered 50% of the votes.

RATE

On the bond market, the ten-year American is unchanged at 3.4775% and the two-year at 4.002%.

OIL

Oil prices are falling, due to concerns about demand from the two main consuming countries, the United States and China.

“With China’s uneven recovery and fears of slowing US growth as the debt ceiling deadline nears, all topped off by a rising dollar, market sentiment towards the crude will remain subdued at best,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

Brent fell 0.62% to 73.71 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.61% to 69.61 dollars.

(Laetitia Volga, edited by Blandine Hénault)

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