(News Bulletin 247) – After its small rebound the day before, the Paris Stock Exchange should continue its timid recovery on Tuesday morning in the hope that a series of indicators expected this afternoon in the United States confirm the good resistance of the American economy.

Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – July delivery – advanced 41 points to 7238 points, announcing an opening in positive territory.

Despite a start to the session in the red, the Parisian market had managed to move slightly higher yesterday to finally conclude the session with a gain of 0.3% to 7184 points.

Many technical analysts point out, however, that the CAC is currently in a downtrend, with market participants looking to pause as they approach the end of a successful first half.

After having taken 11% since the beginning of the year in the hope of a decline in inflation and a soft landing in global growth, the ACC is now camped on its major resistance threshold of 7200 points.

For many analysts, much of the good news is now well priced in, which could make equity markets vulnerable to bad news.

The uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the policies of the major central banks and the increasingly real threat of a recession in the second half of the year in particular continue to dampen risk appetite.

Several statistics expected in the afternoon in the United States will provide more information on the current state of health of the American economy, namely durable goods orders, consumer confidence from the Conference Board and sales. of new housing.

In the immediate future, the lack of appetite for risk shown by investors is pushing them towards bonds, with yields on US and German benchmark government bonds falling quite sharply.

On both sides of the Atlantic, yield spreads between bonds with shorter maturities and longer maturities are widening dramatically and are now reaching extreme levels, a signal often seen as the harbinger of a recession.

With a ‘spread’ that went as far as reaching 1.02 percentage points yesterday between the two and 10-year American maturities, this gap is very close to the 1.08% that had been reached at the time of the bankruptcy of the California bank SVB.

‘If this level were to be touched in the next few days, then the inversion of the yield curve would reach levels not seen since 1981, that is to say when Paul Volcker was at the helm of the Fed and that interest rates “Interest was at extremely restrictive levels,” said Jim Reid, market analyst at Deutsche Bank.

On the foreign exchange side, the euro-dollar parity is evolving on small differences, but things could change this Friday with the publication of inflation figures in Europe and the United States.

On the oil market, crude oil prices continue to benefit from political unrest in Russia, with American light crude taking advantage of this to climb above the 70 dollar mark (+1%).

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