(News Bulletin 247) – The analyst believes that growth in the second quarter will remain very strong. ‘The group is cautious for the future but its positioning is a guarantee of relative security’.
‘ No slowdown in the United States where, after a Q1 at +19%, we can count on a score still visibly exceeding 10% in Q2, and both Europe (Q1 at c. +24%) and the Japan (Q1 +26%) should, in our opinion, continue to grow beyond +20% in Q2’ indicates Oddo BHF.
‘ Regarding Asia Pacific, the reacceleration of growth in Q2 compared to Q1 (where it amounted to +22.5%) due to China should be a little less significant than for the rest of the sector because Hermès had much better resisted than its peers in China in Q2 last year (with in particular a strong reacceleration in June) ‘adds the analysis office.
The absence of a noticeable slowdown across Europe/Japan/Americas led the analyst to raise its growth forecast for the 2nd quarter (y/y cc) from 19.3% to 23.8% (the Visible Alpha consensus on more recent is at c.+23% indicates Oddo BHF).
‘ We remain relatively cautious on H2 growth (Q3 forecast raised from +7.7% to 9.1% but still showing a significant slowdown, Q4 forecast almost unchanged at +12.1%) hence an increase in our annual growth assumption of +15.2% to +16.6% ‘.
For 2024, Oddo BHF is still expecting growth of around +12%, reflecting an increase in price increases compared to the rest of the sector, which the analyst estimates at c. +300 bp.
Oddo confirms its outperformance recommendation on the share with a price target of 2028 E.
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