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At the bottom of the congestion figure, probably diamond, the CAC40 (+0.45%) reflected on Monday the digestion of the American employment figures published at the end of last week.

As a reminder, published on Friday, the traditional NFP, still closely followed, highlighted job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture) of around 210,000 units, below the target of 224,000, as well as a stabilization of the unemployment rate at 3.6% of the active population. So much for the “phew of relief”. On the other hand, it should be noted that the dynamics of wages (+0.4% on a monthly basis) exceeded expectations, and should mechanically fuel the debates towards maintaining monetary firmness at the next FOMC. Not enough, therefore, to influence the Fed in its decision to raise by 25 bps the Fed Funds at the end of the month. A probable scenario up to 92.4% according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“While the noose therefore seems to be (gently) loosening, wage pressures remain with a further increase in hourly wages of 0.4% in June, i.e. wage growth of 4.4% over one year, unchanged from the previous month. the “price-wage” inflationary spiral seems to have been ruled out, these tensions are curbing disinflation, particularly in services, which are intensive in human capital”, analyzes Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion.

“While signs of weakness in the US labor market are increasingly visible, in line with slowing growth and as post-covid excesses are being purged, one would clearly have expected to a more marked reversal with a monetary tightening of 5% in just over 12 months.”

Operators are thus opting for caution before the publication of major statistics in the United States, namely the consumer price index for June on Wednesday, before those for production on Thursday.

In terms of statistics on Monday, the markets learned in the morning of the Sentix index of investor confidence in the Euro Zone, an index which fell more than expected, from -17 to -22.5, the lowest since November 2022.

On the stock side, the biggest increase was signed by Safran (+1.5%) followed by Saint-Gobain (+1.1%) while Engie (-1.3%) showed the biggest decline at the close. . Kering took over 0.7% while according to the Financial Times, the luxury group would have bought for 3.5 billion euros, the high perfumery company Creed in June. On mid-caps, the biotech Nanobiotix rebounded 40% thanks to the signing of a licensing agreement with the Dutch laboratory Janssen, which looks promising.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices managed to grab a few points on Monday, like the Dow Jones (+0.45% to 15,673 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0.18 % at 13,685 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.24% to 4,409 points.

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1,1020. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $73.40.

On the agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority the ZEW index of confidence in the German economy at 11:00 a.m. and the NFIB index of small American companies at 12:00 p.m. The consumer price indices in the United States will be published tomorrow, 2:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The weekly candle of week 27, bearish, totally encompasses, by its body, the candle of week 26. The negative message delivered, in the short term at least, takes shape. If necessary, we would be at the heart – that is to say in its broadest phase – of a diamond figure. As a reminder, this is a figure close to a rhombus. Graphically, the diamond looks like a more or less flattened diamond: at the start of the pattern’s formation, prices move inside a widening wedge, then, halfway through, they oscillate at inside a tapering triangle. The intense volatility on Thursday supports this thesis. This figure can be invalidated, in particular in the event of an early exit from below.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of 7410.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7015.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

The News Bulletin 247 board

CAC 40
Neutral
Resistance(s):
7410.00 / 7500.00 / 7585.00
Medium(s):
7015.00 / 6885.00 / 6800.00

Hourly data chart

Chart in daily data

CAC 40: A price / wage spiral that seems to have been ruled out across the Atlantic (©ProRealTime.com)

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