(News Bulletin 247) – Against a backdrop of chronic concern about yields, and with the approach of new monetary events, the CAC 40 still managed to gain 0.55% on Wednesday, mainly thanks to the luxury sector, which weighs heavily in the flagship index. The prospect of solid annual results, in the wake of the publications of renowned foreign counterparts: Richemont and Burberry.
On the securities side, Kering (+ 1.96% to 680.80 euros), Hermès (+ 2.39% to 1,368.50 euros) and especially LVMH (+ 3.67% to 697.70 euros), stood out . LVMH will unveil its annual results on February 1.
One week before the next Fed meeting, the tensions of the last few days on sovereign yields suggest that operators are counting on a sharper tightening than initially expected, with a possible first rate hike as early as March.
“Some Fed doves recently said they were surprised by the “high level and persistence of inflation”, in particular in connection with these global logistics tensions. Which ends up reinforcing the market’s conviction that the Fed will have to its monetary policy in a dynamic way”, retains Alexandre Baradez (IG France).
While the scenario of three episodes of federal rate hikes over the year 2022 seems certain, since the particularly firm tone of the last Minutes, report of the December FOMC, a scenario with 4 hikes is not excluded. The boss of JP Morgan expects the realization of this scenario: Jamie Dimon anticipates that inflation will remain well above the Fed’s 2% target in 2022 and therefore bets on more than 4 rate hikes from the central bank this year, which will lead to more volatility.
In terms of statistics yesterday, there was very little to eat, apart from housing starts and building permits, which both exceeded expectations for the month of December.
On the other side of the Atlantic, a concomitant slack (it’s rare) in both growth technology stocks and banking files, at this timid start to the quarterly ball: the Dow Jones fell by 0 on Wednesday .96% to 35,028 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.96% to 35,028 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 0.97% to 4,532 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1340. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $85.30.
To follow on the agenda this Thursday, as a priority, the consumer price index in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m., the Philly Fed index and the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m., as well as the stocks of gross (5:00 p.m.).
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The underlying trend is not threatened at this stage, but it is clear that the losses on Wall Street last week had repercussions in Paris, in the form of one-off and targeted profits in Paris, profit taking whose extent must be considered in the light of initial progress, dossier by dossier. All the same, we remain well above a bullish slant and the 100-day moving average (in orange), benchmarks which gradually tend to merge, and which will therefore gain in technical significance. We are leaning towards the scenario of a price approach to this support level. She is currently on 6,930 points.
PREVISION
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7390.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7000.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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Source: Tradingsat
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