(News Bulletin 247) – Wall Street has accelerated upwards in the last hour in the wake of ‘tech’: the S&P500 gains +0.85% to 4,510, has accumulated +2.6% since Monday, +17 .5% since January 1, and is back to its levels of early April 2022, within 1% of the resistance at 4.545 at the end of March 2022.

A new bull run with managers ‘running after paper’ while the ‘VIX’ fell back in session to contact with 13, flirting with its best annual levels: an evaporation of ‘risk’ largely inspired by the -20Pts easing in yields on T-Bonds in 48 hours, thanks to a resurgence of expectations of an easing of the Fed’s strategy in the face of inflation which is contracting much more sharply than expected.

The fall in rates is traditionally favorable to ‘technos’ and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by +1.6% to 14,141, its highest in a year: it has already gained +3.6% in four sessions and crossed the +35 mark. Annual %… but the Nasdaq-100 surpasses it with +1.7% (+4% in four sessions) and +42.4% since January 1.

It was the title Alphabet which served as the locomotive with +4.7%, following a well-received reshuffle of the management team.
Nvidia once again stood out with a jump of +5% to $460 (+205% annual), Qualcomm took +3.7%, Cadence Design +2.9%, Palo-Alto +2.7% .

The ‘small caps’ were not unworthy with the Russel-2000 which took +0.9% to 1.951.

The Dow Jones industrials are largely neglected, notably the defensive Walgreen with -2% and the oil companies ExxonMobil and Chevron (-1.3%) which weigh down the historical index. Within the S&P500, it was the airlines that held back the bullish rally.

Exporters, on the other hand, were supported by the fall in the dollar, which is taking an inexorable turn (worst week since last October), with the breakout of the main medium-term supports initiated on Wednesday and largely confirmed on Thursday.

The Dollar Index is sinking below the ‘100’ level (at 0.9997), the lowest since March 2022: it is approaching the former 99 resistance of March 2020 and September 2019.

The greenback is weakened by the belief that the Fed will not need to raise its rates one last time in mid-September (the consensus on a ‘repo’ raised to 5.75% fell in 48 hours from 50% to less than 15%).

Indeed, the fall in inflation in the United States is surprisingly rapid (it notably reflects the spectacular decline in fuel prices) and after a CPI of +3%, the Department of Labor published producer prices in increase of only 0.1% in June (against +0.9% in May) and 2.6% excluding food and energy (against +2.8% in May).

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